***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.6 15.4 0.0 50.0 50.3 13.7 14.6 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.3 15.1 0.0 49.4 49.3 13.2 14.3 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 16.3 15.9 15.5 0.0 50.2 50.3 14.7 15.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.5 11.2 13.0 0.1 52.3 51.9 9.7 11.0 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.0 12.8 13.1 0.1 52.3 51.5 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.8 11.0 0.2 55.3 53.8 10.8 11.5 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 14.8 14.4 15.2 0.0 49.3 49.3 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 6.6 6.5 10.9 0.2 54.3 52.7 5.2 6.3 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 14.0 13.8 13.3 0.1 52.3 51.4 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.7 11.8 0.1 53.2 52.0 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.4 12.5 0.1 52.6 51.6 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 11.7 11.6 11.7 0.1 53.4 52.2 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.2 13.1 11.2 0.2 53.3 52.5 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.5 13.3 0.1 53.0 52.5 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 14.8 14.5 14.3 0.0 49.6 50.0 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 14.0 13.9 12.0 0.2 53.6 52.6 12.9 13.7 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.6 15.0 0.0 49.8 49.5 13.6 14.6 15.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.5 11.3 0.2 54.0 52.8 11.4 12.3 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.3 15.1 0.0 49.8 49.8 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.2 8.2 8.9 0.3 56.2 54.4 7.2 7.9 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 14.1 13.8 14.7 0.1 51.3 50.9 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 14.2 13.9 14.8 0.0 49.3 49.2 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.0 15.0 0.1 51.6 51.3 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.9 13.1 0.1 52.2 51.7 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.0 14.0 0.0 50.2 50.5 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.6 12.5 11.0 0.1 53.3 52.7 11.6 12.4 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.2 14.7 0.0 49.8 50.2 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 12.9 12.7 13.4 0.1 51.6 51.4 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.8 10.6 0.2 54.1 52.9 9.4 10.5 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 15.0 14.6 15.3 0.0 49.7 49.7 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------