***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.9 15.0 0.6 66.9 63.3 12.9 13.4 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 13.9 14.1 15.1 0.8 72.5 67.5 12.6 13.2 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.5 15.1 0.6 67.3 63.2 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.1 12.2 0.2 58.0 56.2 9.2 9.8 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.1 12.5 0.3 60.4 58.0 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.8 10.1 0.2 55.8 54.6 10.3 10.7 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 13.9 14.0 15.1 0.8 71.6 66.7 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.6 10.0 0.2 56.8 55.0 4.9 5.4 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 13.0 13.2 12.8 0.4 63.7 60.6 12.4 12.8 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.9 11.0 0.3 60.0 57.6 12.2 12.7 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.7 11.9 0.2 58.6 56.6 12.0 12.5 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.8 10.8 0.2 56.4 54.9 10.2 10.6 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.1 10.6 0.1 54.0 53.3 11.6 12.0 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 13.5 13.8 12.7 0.5 64.8 61.5 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.9 14.0 13.6 0.2 58.5 57.0 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.1 11.4 0.2 56.7 55.2 12.4 12.9 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 14.2 14.4 15.0 0.9 74.0 69.2 13.0 13.6 14.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.7 10.4 0.3 61.8 58.9 10.8 11.3 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 13.8 13.9 15.0 0.7 71.0 66.3 12.7 13.3 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.4 8.2 0.2 58.2 56.0 6.7 7.2 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 13.0 13.2 14.1 0.4 64.5 61.1 12.3 12.8 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 13.3 13.5 14.7 0.7 70.8 66.7 12.3 12.8 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.5 14.6 0.6 68.5 64.2 12.4 12.9 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 13.0 13.3 12.5 0.4 64.9 61.4 12.2 12.8 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 13.1 13.3 13.5 0.3 59.9 57.9 12.4 12.9 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.7 10.2 0.3 59.4 57.3 11.1 11.5 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.6 14.3 0.5 65.2 62.1 12.5 13.1 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.0 12.6 0.2 58.6 56.7 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 9.8 9.9 9.6 0.3 59.5 57.1 9.1 9.6 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 13.6 14.1 15.1 0.7 70.1 65.4 12.9 13.5 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------