***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 12.4 12.3 13.2 0.1 52.1 51.9 11.2 12.2 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 12.4 12.7 13.3 0.4 58.5 57.8 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 14.2 14.1 13.3 0.1 51.9 51.7 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.2 7.8 10.2 -0.6 37.0 37.8 7.5 8.7 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.2 11.0 -0.4 40.4 41.0 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 8.1 8.0 7.8 -1.1 22.9 25.6 8.6 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 12.4 12.7 13.3 0.4 58.1 57.4 11.2 12.2 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.8 3.6 8.2 -0.6 36.4 37.6 3.4 4.4 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 11.9 11.4 11.4 -0.1 46.8 46.9 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.0 9.4 -0.3 42.4 42.9 10.5 11.5 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.7 10.8 10.5 -0.4 38.6 39.6 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 8.3 8.7 9.2 -0.6 36.3 37.5 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 9.4 9.8 9.3 -0.7 31.2 33.0 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 92 8 100 12.4 12.6 11.4 0.3 56.3 55.6 11.4 12.3 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.9 11.9 11.9 -0.5 38.2 39.1 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 10.6 10.9 9.9 -0.7 33.2 34.8 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 12.7 13.2 13.2 0.6 61.8 60.9 11.5 12.5 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 10.3 9.8 8.9 -0.1 46.8 46.9 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 12.4 12.6 13.2 0.4 57.1 56.4 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 6.4 5.5 6.8 -0.5 39.0 40.2 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 11.8 11.5 12.5 -0.1 48.2 48.2 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 11.9 12.3 13.2 0.6 60.8 60.1 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 12.1 12.2 13.0 0.3 55.7 55.1 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 11.8 11.8 11.2 0.1 52.4 52.1 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 12.2 11.5 12.0 -0.4 41.9 42.5 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 8.9 9.2 8.2 -0.8 29.9 31.8 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 12.5 12.3 12.7 0.0 49.4 49.4 11.3 12.3 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.0 9.9 10.8 -0.5 37.2 38.2 9.7 10.6 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 9.0 8.3 8.0 -0.3 43.7 44.2 7.6 8.7 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 12.6 12.7 13.4 0.3 56.0 55.4 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------