***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 24.0 24.9 23.9 1.0 64.0 62.4 22.4 23.8 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 24.4 25.1 24.1 1.0 63.3 61.9 23.0 24.2 25.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 24.4 25.1 23.8 0.9 62.3 60.8 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 16.9 17.1 19.9 0.4 54.9 54.4 15.3 16.7 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 24.4 25.1 21.7 0.9 61.7 60.3 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 22.7 22.8 18.5 0.3 53.7 53.2 21.1 22.5 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 24.0 24.6 23.9 0.9 61.5 60.2 22.6 23.8 24.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 12.5 12.7 18.9 0.4 56.1 55.5 10.8 12.2 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 23.8 24.7 22.7 1.0 63.5 61.8 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 23.9 24.2 20.3 0.7 58.8 57.8 22.3 23.6 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 24.1 24.6 21.7 0.7 59.8 58.7 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 23.0 23.4 20.1 0.7 59.3 58.3 21.4 22.7 23.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 24.1 24.6 21.0 0.7 59.5 58.7 22.5 23.8 25.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 24.4 24.9 22.4 0.8 60.4 59.3 22.8 24.1 25.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 24.7 24.8 22.5 0.4 55.3 54.8 23.1 24.4 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 24.7 25.0 20.9 0.6 58.0 57.2 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 23.9 24.8 24.1 1.3 67.0 65.2 22.4 23.6 24.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 23.5 23.7 19.3 0.5 57.0 56.2 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 24.0 24.9 24.2 1.2 66.1 64.3 22.5 23.7 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 18.7 18.8 17.0 0.4 55.3 54.8 16.9 18.4 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 24.1 24.8 23.5 0.9 61.6 60.1 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 24.4 25.4 24.1 1.4 68.2 66.2 22.9 24.1 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 25.5 25.8 24.5 1.7 71.6 69.2 23.0 24.2 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 23.8 24.3 22.1 0.8 60.2 59.0 22.3 23.6 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 24.2 24.8 22.5 0.8 61.4 60.2 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 23.5 24.0 19.3 0.8 61.5 60.4 21.9 23.2 24.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 23.9 24.6 23.2 0.9 62.0 60.7 22.4 23.7 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 24.6 24.6 20.8 0.3 53.7 53.3 23.0 24.4 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 18.7 18.8 18.6 0.5 56.1 55.4 17.0 18.3 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 24.2 24.9 24.0 0.9 62.3 60.9 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------