***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 12.8 14.6 -0.3 45.5 47.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 12.8 12.6 14.9 0.1 52.4 52.7 11.4 12.5 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 14.5 13.9 14.4 -0.3 45.1 47.1 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.4 8.5 12.4 -0.3 43.1 45.9 8.0 8.9 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 11.2 10.5 12.2 -0.4 42.6 45.8 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 10.0 9.5 10.3 -0.4 42.3 45.1 9.1 9.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 12.9 12.7 14.9 0.1 51.6 52.2 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.2 10.4 -0.3 43.7 46.7 3.6 4.5 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.7 12.5 -0.3 43.3 46.3 11.3 12.0 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.6 11.1 -0.3 43.9 47.0 11.2 11.9 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.8 11.2 11.6 -0.4 42.6 45.9 10.8 11.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.1 9.5 11.1 -0.4 42.3 45.6 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 11.4 10.8 10.7 -0.4 42.5 45.6 10.4 11.1 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.9 12.4 12.7 -0.2 45.4 47.8 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.7 13.1 -0.3 44.6 46.8 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.5 11.3 -0.4 41.8 45.0 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 13.0 13.0 14.9 0.4 56.4 56.1 11.8 12.7 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.2 10.5 -0.3 44.7 47.5 9.7 10.4 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 12.8 12.5 14.8 0.1 50.9 51.6 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.2 8.7 -0.2 45.9 48.3 5.6 6.4 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.3 11.7 13.6 -0.4 43.2 45.9 11.2 12.0 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 12.4 12.5 14.8 0.4 56.6 56.2 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.1 14.3 -0.1 47.7 49.2 11.2 12.2 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.7 12.4 -0.3 44.2 46.9 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.5 11.9 13.1 -0.2 45.4 47.5 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.3 10.8 -0.3 43.1 45.8 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.1 13.9 -0.2 45.8 47.7 11.2 12.4 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 11.2 10.6 12.6 -0.4 42.1 45.0 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.2 8.6 9.8 -0.2 45.5 48.0 7.8 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 13.0 12.6 14.9 0.0 49.7 50.6 11.7 12.7 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------