***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9.0 26.6 17.2 106.9 66.5 49.7 8.9 16.2 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 9.2 28.3 18.2 125.4 71.7 53.6 9.4 15.8 24.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 10.5 27.7 17.5 106.4 66.1 49.4 9.9 17.5 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 9.3 24.0 17.3 100.4 63.9 49.1 8.4 15.5 25.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 8.6 22.0 18.0 109.2 67.0 50.4 8.0 13.8 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.2 18.4 19.3 96.6 62.2 50.8 7.6 13.2 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 8.1 23.4 17.7 119.0 70.1 51.8 7.9 13.6 20.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 29.1 31.7 18.6 99.0 63.0 48.8 17.2 24.8 33.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 10.4 23.1 18.8 110.2 67.0 49.7 10.2 15.8 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.0 19.5 20.0 102.8 64.1 49.2 8.6 13.9 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.6 17.7 15.3 98.3 63.1 47.6 6.3 11.8 19.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.1 15.8 15.5 94.9 62.1 46.9 5.7 10.7 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 7.4 18.8 17.5 99.5 63.9 48.2 6.9 12.5 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 12.5 29.4 22.6 103.1 64.2 49.4 11.8 20.1 31.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 5.7 14.7 12.9 83.0 58.4 44.6 5.7 11.1 18.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 5.3 14.3 15.7 94.7 62.1 47.3 4.9 9.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 9.8 30.5 16.4 118.2 69.8 53.7 9.4 16.9 27.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 21.2 24.6 22.9 106.3 65.0 51.3 12.4 18.3 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 8.6 30.6 18.3 122.1 70.8 53.0 8.4 15.9 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 17.2 19.0 20.5 99.1 62.0 49.7 8.4 13.9 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 7.9 23.4 18.5 112.9 68.0 50.7 7.6 13.7 22.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 10.1 29.5 17.5 121.2 70.6 54.6 9.6 16.6 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 7.2 22.1 17.9 111.6 67.8 50.2 6.9 12.8 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 23.7 27.2 21.0 106.9 65.5 50.4 13.6 20.0 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 9.1 24.4 18.6 105.7 65.6 49.0 8.6 15.6 24.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 5.2 13.9 14.7 94.7 62.9 47.1 4.9 9.2 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 8.7 25.8 18.5 107.1 66.3 49.3 8.3 15.6 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 5.7 13.6 15.6 91.8 61.2 47.0 5.7 9.8 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.4 26.9 22.6 104.2 63.9 50.6 12.4 19.4 28.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 11.2 27.4 17.9 117.7 69.6 51.9 11.2 17.4 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------