***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.9 19.0 23.4 126.3 71.7 60.2 5.3 9.8 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.7 21.7 22.2 132.6 73.4 58.9 4.2 9.1 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 7.5 22.3 23.6 129.2 72.4 57.9 7.0 12.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 9.2 22.6 22.7 117.7 68.9 55.2 8.9 14.2 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 6.1 15.2 20.7 112.4 67.2 52.8 5.8 9.7 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 9.2 15.5 20.1 86.8 55.4 45.4 9.1 13.7 19.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.7 19.2 21.4 130.5 72.8 59.6 3.9 8.3 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 12.9 28.2 20.9 101.7 62.6 48.4 12.7 20.7 30.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 6.2 15.9 22.5 114.7 67.9 53.0 5.9 9.9 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 8.4 19.5 23.0 109.1 65.8 51.3 8.1 13.2 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.0 15.0 20.3 104.9 64.0 51.0 5.9 10.2 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 6.6 14.3 17.5 94.0 59.3 45.2 6.8 11.3 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 7.2 14.9 19.7 97.5 61.3 48.4 7.0 11.3 16.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 22.9 30.9 26.3 118.7 69.1 56.6 9.5 17.3 28.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.5 17.7 22.0 120.7 70.0 54.6 5.0 9.3 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.0 14.8 19.1 96.5 61.1 49.1 7.1 11.3 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 12.1 20.1 21.1 128.8 72.4 60.0 4.3 9.0 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 9.6 22.9 24.5 107.2 65.0 51.5 9.2 15.5 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 13.0 21.8 22.3 130.5 72.8 58.7 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 9.5 21.0 23.7 106.8 64.4 51.0 9.2 14.8 21.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 6.8 17.1 23.6 124.4 71.0 56.5 6.7 10.5 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 14.7 24.4 21.0 126.0 71.6 59.7 5.0 10.8 19.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.3 19.0 22.1 124.9 71.1 57.6 5.3 10.0 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 19.7 24.3 24.4 113.6 67.1 53.7 9.1 15.4 23.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 18.2 18.7 25.8 124.9 71.1 59.8 5.8 10.3 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 5.1 9.7 14.7 77.7 51.2 38.9 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 15.8 16.7 25.5 127.3 71.9 61.1 4.7 8.7 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.9 16.2 20.1 107.5 65.5 51.4 7.4 11.5 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 11.9 27.1 25.0 109.0 65.3 52.5 11.6 18.7 27.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 13.3 21.2 22.8 134.8 74.0 59.2 5.4 10.0 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------