***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 14.4 15.9 -0.3 44.6 45.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.8 13.8 15.7 -0.5 41.2 42.7 13.3 14.4 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 16.5 15.7 15.8 -0.3 44.1 44.9 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.7 10.6 13.8 -0.4 41.5 43.1 10.0 11.2 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.4 12.7 13.7 -0.4 42.7 44.0 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.6 11.7 -0.3 42.9 44.5 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 13.4 14.1 15.7 -0.5 40.9 42.4 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 7.1 6.2 11.6 -0.5 41.2 43.0 5.7 6.7 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 14.5 13.9 14.1 -0.3 43.7 44.8 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.3 13.5 12.4 -0.4 42.4 43.8 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.5 13.2 -0.3 44.1 45.3 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.5 12.6 -0.4 42.3 44.0 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 13.8 13.1 12.1 -0.3 43.3 44.9 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.1 13.9 -0.5 40.7 42.3 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.4 14.7 14.6 -0.3 43.3 44.5 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.6 13.9 12.9 -0.3 43.3 44.8 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 15.3 14.3 15.4 -0.6 39.2 41.3 13.9 14.9 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.9 12.1 11.6 -0.5 40.3 42.0 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.1 15.8 -0.5 42.2 43.5 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.7 9.6 -0.6 38.8 40.9 7.4 8.3 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 14.5 13.8 15.1 -0.3 44.2 45.1 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.4 13.5 15.3 -0.6 39.0 41.1 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.4 13.7 15.5 -0.4 43.1 44.3 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.5 13.7 13.7 -0.4 42.0 43.4 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.7 14.3 -0.4 43.2 44.2 13.1 14.1 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 11.8 12.3 12.1 -0.5 40.0 42.2 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.6 13.7 15.1 -0.4 43.5 44.3 13.1 14.1 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.4 12.7 14.1 -0.4 41.8 43.4 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 11.3 10.1 10.8 -0.6 39.1 41.0 9.7 10.8 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.2 15.9 -0.5 42.3 43.4 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------