***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 24.8 25.0 25.5 1.6 70.1 69.1 21.6 23.2 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 25.1 25.2 25.4 1.6 69.6 68.6 22.3 23.7 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 25.1 25.4 25.6 1.7 70.1 69.1 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 16.8 17.7 22.9 1.0 63.3 62.7 14.8 16.5 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 47 53 100 25.3 25.4 23.9 1.4 67.1 66.3 22.3 23.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 22.7 23.2 20.8 0.7 59.1 58.6 20.9 22.4 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 24.8 25.0 25.4 1.6 70.2 69.2 22.1 23.4 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 46 54 100 13.5 13.4 21.7 1.2 65.0 64.2 10.7 12.1 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 24.7 24.9 24.8 1.6 69.5 68.6 21.6 23.1 24.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 24.8 24.8 23.0 1.5 67.4 66.5 21.8 23.3 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 47 53 100 24.9 24.9 23.4 1.3 66.0 65.2 21.9 23.5 24.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 22.8 23.6 22.4 1.1 63.3 62.7 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 23.9 24.7 22.3 1.0 62.2 61.6 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 25.4 25.7 24.7 2.0 73.2 72.1 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 24.5 25.1 24.2 0.8 60.5 60.0 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 24.4 25.3 22.9 1.1 63.7 63.1 22.6 24.1 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 24.7 24.8 25.1 1.7 71.1 70.1 21.8 23.1 24.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 24.2 24.4 22.3 1.7 69.2 68.1 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 24.6 24.8 25.4 1.6 70.0 69.1 21.8 23.2 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 19.5 19.4 20.0 1.4 66.4 65.4 16.6 18.0 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 25.0 25.2 25.6 1.7 69.8 68.9 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 25.3 25.3 25.2 1.8 72.0 71.0 22.2 23.5 24.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 25.1 25.4 25.5 1.8 71.2 70.2 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 24.5 24.8 24.4 1.9 71.5 70.4 21.6 23.0 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 25.0 25.2 24.3 1.5 68.8 67.9 22.0 23.5 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 23.3 23.9 21.3 0.8 59.9 59.4 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 24.8 25.1 24.9 1.6 70.3 69.2 21.9 23.3 24.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 24.4 25.1 23.3 0.8 60.7 60.2 22.7 24.2 25.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 19.5 19.6 21.6 1.7 69.9 68.8 16.5 17.9 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 24.9 25.1 25.5 1.6 69.5 68.6 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------