***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 11.0 12.0 13.6 -0.4 43.7 43.6 11.4 12.4 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 11.0 11.9 13.4 -0.4 42.8 42.8 11.3 12.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 12.8 13.9 13.8 -0.3 45.0 44.6 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 7.3 8.5 11.0 -0.3 43.9 44.4 7.7 8.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 9.6 10.6 11.5 -0.3 45.1 45.0 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 8.4 9.6 9.3 0.0 50.3 48.3 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 11.1 12.1 13.5 -0.3 44.4 43.7 11.4 12.5 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 3.0 4.5 9.1 0.0 49.7 47.7 3.4 4.5 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 10.6 11.5 11.7 -0.2 46.4 46.2 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 10.5 11.7 10.1 0.0 50.7 48.6 10.7 11.7 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 10.3 11.2 11.1 -0.2 46.7 46.0 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 8.5 9.6 10.1 -0.1 48.2 46.7 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 9.7 10.7 9.9 -0.2 46.0 46.0 10.0 10.9 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 12.9 12.5 11.6 0.0 50.0 48.5 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 11.4 12.1 12.4 -0.5 40.6 42.9 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 10.7 11.6 10.5 -0.3 45.0 45.2 10.9 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 11.2 12.3 13.1 -0.4 43.1 42.4 11.7 12.7 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 9.0 10.3 9.5 0.2 53.5 50.6 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 11.0 12.0 13.4 -0.4 43.4 43.4 11.4 12.3 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.0 6.4 7.5 0.1 52.2 49.5 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 10.6 11.5 12.9 -0.3 44.5 44.6 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 10.7 11.7 13.3 -0.3 45.6 44.5 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 10.8 11.7 13.4 -0.3 44.6 44.3 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 10.7 11.9 11.6 0.1 51.3 49.1 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 10.7 11.5 12.3 -0.5 40.9 42.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 9.3 10.4 9.5 0.0 50.9 48.8 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 10.9 11.9 13.0 -0.4 43.0 43.2 11.2 12.3 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 9.6 10.4 11.4 -0.4 43.0 44.3 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.3 8.8 8.8 0.1 52.6 50.1 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 11.1 12.1 13.7 -0.4 43.8 43.6 11.5 12.5 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------