***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 6.0 25.0 10.0 120.6 70.6 48.1 6.4 12.6 21.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 9.8 27.3 9.8 117.0 69.5 52.5 10.0 16.6 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 8.6 29.1 10.1 113.8 68.7 48.7 7.9 15.7 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.0 30.2 12.3 117.3 70.1 53.6 9.5 16.8 26.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 16.7 22.2 12.2 113.2 69.0 50.2 7.1 12.8 20.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 7.8 23.3 18.6 116.4 69.0 48.6 8.1 13.9 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 8.0 21.4 9.5 112.3 68.2 52.5 7.9 13.3 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 11.1 28.4 15.7 112.0 68.0 48.7 10.5 17.6 26.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.7 21.0 12.1 109.1 67.8 46.8 5.8 11.6 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 18.2 22.2 15.4 105.1 66.3 47.7 7.5 13.7 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 7.4 20.3 11.3 113.2 68.7 48.2 7.1 12.1 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.7 18.7 11.9 118.9 70.1 47.1 5.4 10.1 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.1 19.0 13.6 115.8 69.2 48.2 5.6 10.5 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 8.3 25.1 16.3 122.7 71.2 51.0 8.1 14.0 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.1 17.6 10.8 117.3 70.0 50.9 4.0 8.5 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.3 16.3 12.6 120.6 70.7 48.9 4.9 8.8 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 8.3 25.5 9.5 110.7 67.5 49.4 8.5 15.4 24.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.4 22.7 19.1 112.2 68.2 49.5 7.6 13.5 21.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 10.1 30.7 10.0 120.0 70.2 50.9 10.2 17.7 27.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.9 23.8 19.6 119.1 69.9 52.1 6.9 12.8 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 7.7 24.4 10.7 118.8 70.5 46.8 8.1 14.0 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 9.5 27.1 10.6 118.0 69.6 48.5 9.8 16.3 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 7.1 24.3 11.0 123.8 71.4 49.5 7.1 13.0 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 9.2 27.4 15.9 118.5 70.1 49.7 8.5 15.1 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 7.7 23.5 12.6 114.9 69.4 51.7 7.1 13.1 21.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.3 17.5 11.3 114.0 68.5 45.2 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 6.3 22.7 12.0 114.1 68.9 50.7 6.1 12.0 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 13.9 19.6 12.3 119.5 70.7 51.3 5.5 10.4 17.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 24.1 31.7 19.0 117.4 69.5 50.0 10.9 18.8 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 11.4 29.8 9.6 114.4 68.8 52.2 11.4 18.6 27.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------