***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 10.0 21.4 12.4 81.5 58.1 45.8 9.4 16.9 26.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 8.0 17.7 13.1 85.1 58.6 45.8 7.9 13.8 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 10.8 22.6 12.0 79.6 56.6 44.6 10.4 18.6 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 21.2 30.9 17.7 121.9 70.7 53.8 7.9 15.8 26.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.0 23.6 18.4 125.4 71.6 52.2 8.8 14.0 20.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.9 27.0 25.5 142.5 76.0 58.9 7.9 13.3 20.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 7.2 16.8 14.1 88.6 60.0 46.2 7.0 12.5 19.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 28.1 39.2 22.8 142.4 75.8 59.6 16.9 24.0 32.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 10.4 24.1 17.4 110.6 67.7 49.0 10.2 16.0 23.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 18.3 24.1 21.3 122.5 70.5 54.5 9.4 14.8 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 8.7 25.1 17.0 141.1 75.5 55.8 8.6 13.6 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 8.4 25.4 16.9 144.4 76.3 57.5 8.1 13.1 19.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 16.0 25.8 18.7 140.7 75.5 58.1 6.6 11.9 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 29.3 27.4 14.8 78.5 56.0 45.8 14.8 23.7 34.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.9 21.4 14.4 110.8 67.9 50.9 5.6 11.3 19.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.8 22.1 16.7 137.3 74.7 56.5 6.0 10.7 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 8.6 21.0 13.3 84.2 57.9 42.7 8.9 16.5 26.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 25.4 28.7 21.3 104.8 65.0 52.6 15.9 22.1 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 8.1 19.4 11.9 81.7 57.6 45.3 7.6 14.9 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 25.4 26.5 25.7 126.7 71.8 59.0 9.3 15.3 22.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 8.9 21.1 13.7 94.6 62.6 45.5 8.9 15.1 23.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 7.5 17.9 12.1 81.6 56.8 42.5 7.5 14.3 23.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 8.3 17.7 11.1 78.9 57.3 45.4 8.1 14.3 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 15.5 26.6 16.1 87.0 58.7 47.2 15.2 22.4 30.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 21.1 22.7 16.3 92.6 61.6 48.3 9.8 16.7 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 20.3 27.3 16.0 159.2 79.7 62.1 4.8 9.8 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 8.3 19.8 15.5 85.5 59.4 47.2 7.6 14.6 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.7 20.0 16.3 120.2 70.5 53.7 6.9 11.6 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 25.9 30.5 21.0 107.5 65.9 53.7 14.3 21.7 30.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 9.0 19.2 12.8 84.1 58.5 46.4 8.7 15.1 23.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------