***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.6 16.1 0.7 62.0 59.9 12.2 13.0 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 14.4 14.3 16.5 1.2 68.7 65.6 12.2 13.2 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 15.0 15.5 16.2 0.8 63.7 61.5 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 10.1 10.1 13.6 0.3 55.9 54.2 8.7 9.7 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.9 11.9 13.4 0.4 56.9 55.3 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.7 11.2 0.1 52.8 51.8 9.9 10.6 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 14.2 14.2 16.5 1.1 68.3 65.1 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.8 11.6 0.6 61.5 58.8 4.5 5.2 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.9 13.0 13.8 0.4 58.2 56.6 11.9 12.7 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.9 13.0 12.3 0.5 60.5 58.3 11.9 12.6 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.7 13.0 0.5 60.0 57.5 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.0 12.6 0.6 61.4 58.4 9.9 10.5 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.1 11.9 0.3 55.6 53.7 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 13.5 13.8 14.1 0.7 62.4 60.2 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.9 14.3 0.4 58.2 55.5 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.9 13.0 12.6 0.3 56.9 54.7 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 14.4 14.3 15.9 0.9 64.6 62.0 12.6 13.5 14.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.8 11.7 0.6 61.4 59.0 10.5 11.3 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 14.2 14.1 16.5 1.2 68.8 65.7 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.4 9.6 0.4 58.0 55.9 6.5 7.1 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.0 15.1 0.5 58.6 57.2 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 13.7 13.6 16.0 1.0 66.1 63.4 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 13.8 13.8 16.1 1.1 68.5 65.4 11.9 12.8 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 12.9 13.2 13.9 0.6 62.3 60.0 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 13.1 13.1 14.3 0.4 57.6 56.1 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.6 12.0 0.3 55.3 53.2 10.7 11.4 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.6 15.2 0.6 60.6 58.6 12.0 13.0 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 11.9 11.9 13.9 0.3 56.6 54.4 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 10.0 10.2 11.0 0.5 60.7 58.4 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 14.4 14.4 16.6 1.1 68.2 65.1 12.5 13.4 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------