***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 12.2 12.4 14.0 -0.8 31.2 34.4 12.5 13.0 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 12.0 12.0 13.5 -1.0 25.5 29.6 12.3 12.9 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 13.6 13.9 14.1 -0.7 32.2 35.0 13.9 14.5 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 8.6 9.1 11.7 -0.4 38.0 39.9 8.9 9.5 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 10.8 11.0 11.9 -0.5 35.7 37.8 11.0 11.4 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 9.7 10.0 9.7 -0.3 40.2 41.1 9.8 10.2 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 12.2 12.2 13.6 -1.0 25.6 29.6 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 4.2 4.6 9.5 -0.5 36.0 38.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 11.7 12.0 12.0 -0.5 34.5 36.9 11.9 12.4 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 11.5 11.8 10.3 -0.5 35.7 37.7 11.7 12.2 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 11.4 11.7 11.5 -0.5 36.9 38.6 11.6 12.0 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 9.5 9.8 10.5 -0.5 36.7 38.3 9.7 10.2 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 10.9 11.2 10.2 -0.5 36.3 37.9 11.1 11.6 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 12.2 12.4 11.7 -0.6 31.5 34.8 12.5 13.0 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 12.6 12.9 13.3 -0.4 39.7 40.9 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 11.7 12.0 11.0 -0.5 37.0 38.7 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 12.4 12.4 13.3 -1.0 25.8 30.0 12.7 13.2 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 10.0 10.4 9.6 -0.4 36.9 38.9 10.3 10.8 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 12.1 12.2 13.6 -1.0 27.1 30.8 12.4 12.9 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 6.1 6.5 7.7 -0.3 40.6 41.8 6.3 6.7 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 11.7 12.0 13.4 -0.5 35.1 37.5 11.9 12.4 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 11.8 11.8 13.3 -0.9 26.9 30.9 12.0 12.5 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 11.7 11.9 13.6 -0.9 28.6 32.1 12.0 12.5 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 11.5 11.9 11.7 -0.5 34.1 36.7 11.8 12.4 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 11.8 12.1 12.8 -0.7 32.8 35.7 12.1 12.6 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 10.4 10.7 9.7 -0.5 37.3 38.7 10.6 11.0 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 12.0 12.2 13.4 -0.8 31.4 34.5 12.3 12.8 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 10.8 11.1 12.2 -0.3 41.1 42.0 10.9 11.3 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 8.4 8.9 9.0 -0.4 37.2 39.2 8.7 9.3 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 12.4 12.4 13.8 -1.0 26.4 30.3 12.6 13.1 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------