***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 10.7 10.7 11.1 -1.9 21.3 23.2 11.4 12.2 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 88 12 0 100 10.4 10.2 10.5 -2.2 16.5 18.5 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 11.9 11.9 11.2 -1.8 21.4 23.5 12.7 13.7 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 6.7 7.0 8.9 -1.4 26.4 28.4 7.5 8.7 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 9.6 9.7 9.7 -1.4 25.8 27.7 10.0 10.8 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 8.4 8.5 7.1 -1.3 27.1 28.9 8.8 9.5 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 10.3 10.2 10.4 -2.3 16.0 17.9 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 2.6 2.7 6.7 -1.5 23.7 26.0 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 10.3 10.4 9.8 -1.3 25.0 27.0 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 10.1 10.2 7.8 -1.4 24.8 27.0 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 10.1 10.2 9.4 -1.3 27.3 29.1 10.5 11.2 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 8.1 8.2 8.0 -1.4 25.6 27.7 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 9.8 9.9 8.5 -1.2 27.8 29.6 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 10.8 10.7 9.2 -1.5 22.7 25.3 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 11.2 11.4 10.9 -1.2 28.0 29.6 11.6 12.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 10.4 10.5 8.9 -1.4 26.4 28.3 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 92 8 0 100 10.6 10.4 10.1 -2.2 15.3 17.3 11.6 12.4 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 8.6 8.7 7.2 -1.4 25.2 27.7 9.1 9.9 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 10.6 10.4 10.6 -2.1 17.1 19.1 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 4.9 5.0 5.5 -1.2 28.3 30.3 5.2 5.9 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 10.2 10.3 10.9 -1.5 24.1 26.1 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 92 8 0 100 9.9 9.7 10.4 -2.1 15.6 17.6 10.8 11.5 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 10.3 10.2 10.5 -2.1 17.5 19.6 11.0 11.8 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 10.2 10.3 9.4 -1.4 23.8 26.4 10.8 11.5 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 84 16 0 100 10.5 10.6 10.3 -1.9 21.6 23.4 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 9.3 9.4 7.4 -1.3 28.5 30.2 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 10.4 10.4 10.6 -1.9 20.7 22.7 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 9.5 9.6 9.8 -1.2 29.2 30.9 9.8 10.5 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 6.7 6.8 6.4 -1.4 24.1 26.5 7.4 8.4 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 89 11 0 100 10.5 10.4 10.8 -2.2 17.5 19.4 11.4 12.4 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------