***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 17.1 23.5 17.6 119.5 70.2 54.2 8.0 13.6 21.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.2 19.9 15.0 112.3 68.3 54.6 6.6 11.8 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 21.5 29.7 17.8 120.4 70.5 54.8 9.6 16.6 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 28.7 30.7 21.4 129.0 72.7 58.5 10.1 17.2 25.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.0 18.8 18.2 113.2 68.6 54.5 7.9 12.3 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 14.7 21.0 23.6 131.1 73.1 61.0 7.4 12.0 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 13.7 18.3 14.9 110.6 67.4 53.6 4.9 10.1 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 15.7 32.5 21.2 123.3 71.1 57.2 15.7 22.1 29.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 16.7 19.9 18.5 106.3 66.4 51.5 8.7 13.6 19.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 15.6 19.5 22.0 117.2 69.4 55.5 8.6 12.9 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 7.2 17.5 16.6 116.4 69.2 53.8 7.0 11.1 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.0 19.0 18.3 123.5 71.1 56.6 7.1 11.3 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.6 18.6 21.2 129.4 72.7 58.0 5.7 10.0 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 11.9 30.9 21.5 103.9 64.9 51.4 10.8 19.8 31.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 14.1 25.8 20.8 146.4 76.7 59.9 5.1 10.2 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 6.0 18.1 18.8 125.1 71.6 56.5 5.6 9.9 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 8.3 21.2 14.3 103.2 65.2 51.3 7.7 13.7 21.7 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 11.6 26.1 24.2 113.9 68.4 55.5 11.3 17.4 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 18.6 26.9 16.0 118.7 70.0 54.5 6.5 13.3 23.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.3 20.9 24.2 119.8 69.8 58.0 8.8 13.6 19.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 16.8 21.6 18.4 114.0 69.0 53.1 9.0 14.0 20.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 7.2 24.6 16.5 111.2 67.7 51.9 6.3 13.2 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 8.1 24.6 17.2 121.5 70.5 53.2 7.3 13.4 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 10.2 27.1 21.2 114.2 68.5 54.2 9.8 16.5 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 17.2 24.0 20.6 118.7 70.0 55.1 7.5 13.5 21.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 14.2 16.3 18.9 134.2 73.9 60.1 3.8 7.5 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.6 22.0 19.6 121.6 70.7 55.9 7.0 12.3 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 18.9 21.3 21.4 136.2 74.5 59.4 6.4 10.9 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 23.0 27.5 24.0 113.5 68.1 56.6 13.8 19.6 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 15.8 22.4 16.1 119.5 70.5 56.3 7.0 12.4 19.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------