***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 22.3 23.6 24.7 -0.4 45.4 46.7 22.6 24.0 25.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 22.7 24.3 24.7 -0.2 47.3 47.9 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 22.5 23.8 24.8 -0.6 43.4 45.2 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 15.8 16.7 22.4 -0.6 43.3 44.6 16.0 17.2 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 25.5 24.4 22.8 -0.6 43.4 44.9 23.6 24.9 26.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 22.0 23.1 20.5 -0.3 46.2 46.6 22.2 23.3 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 22.4 24.2 25.0 0.0 49.4 49.4 22.7 24.2 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 11.3 12.4 20.9 -0.5 44.8 45.8 11.5 12.7 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 22.6 23.7 23.0 -0.6 43.3 44.9 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 22.6 23.7 21.7 -0.5 44.0 45.2 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 23.1 24.2 22.5 -0.5 44.3 45.5 23.4 24.6 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 22.3 23.3 22.0 -0.4 44.8 45.9 22.5 23.6 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 23.4 24.4 21.3 -0.3 45.9 46.9 23.5 24.7 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 22.4 23.7 22.8 -0.5 44.2 45.4 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 24.0 24.8 23.2 -0.7 42.0 43.4 24.2 25.2 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 23.9 25.0 22.1 -0.4 45.2 46.2 24.1 25.3 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 22.0 24.1 24.8 0.1 50.6 50.2 22.4 24.0 25.5 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 21.9 23.2 21.1 -0.5 44.4 45.5 22.3 23.6 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 22.2 23.7 24.7 -0.4 45.5 46.5 22.5 24.1 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 17.4 18.8 18.7 -0.4 45.9 46.7 17.8 19.1 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 22.7 23.9 24.0 -0.6 43.1 44.8 23.0 24.4 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 22.5 24.3 24.4 -0.2 48.1 48.1 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 22.6 24.0 24.5 -0.5 44.5 45.7 22.9 24.4 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 22.0 23.3 22.7 -0.6 43.2 44.8 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 23.1 24.2 23.0 -0.4 44.8 46.0 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 23.0 24.2 21.5 -0.2 48.1 48.3 23.2 24.3 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 22.6 24.0 24.0 -0.3 46.5 47.4 22.8 24.3 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 24.2 24.9 22.6 -0.7 42.2 43.7 24.4 25.4 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 17.2 18.5 20.2 -0.5 45.0 45.9 17.6 18.9 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 22.6 24.1 24.8 -0.3 46.4 47.3 22.8 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------