***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 10.9 10.5 12.8 -1.5 23.1 27.8 11.2 12.3 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 11.0 11.0 12.8 -1.1 28.9 33.4 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 12.6 12.4 13.0 -1.4 23.7 28.1 13.0 14.1 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 7.0 6.7 10.4 -1.5 22.3 27.1 7.5 8.7 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 9.4 9.1 10.9 -1.5 21.9 26.9 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 8.2 7.9 8.5 -1.4 22.2 27.2 8.6 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 11.0 11.1 12.9 -1.1 29.4 34.0 11.3 12.3 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 3.0 2.9 8.7 -1.1 27.0 32.2 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 10.2 9.9 11.2 -1.3 23.0 28.4 10.6 11.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 10.1 10.1 9.7 -1.1 25.8 31.1 10.5 11.5 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 10.0 9.8 10.6 -1.2 24.1 29.1 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 8.2 8.0 9.5 -1.2 24.9 30.1 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 9.6 9.3 9.3 -1.3 22.2 27.4 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 11.0 11.0 11.2 -1.1 26.9 31.5 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 11.0 10.6 11.9 -1.5 19.3 24.1 11.5 12.5 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 10.4 10.1 9.9 -1.4 22.5 27.3 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 11.2 11.6 12.8 -0.8 33.5 37.4 11.6 12.6 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 8.8 8.7 9.2 -1.0 28.0 32.8 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 11.0 11.0 12.8 -1.1 27.9 32.3 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.8 4.8 7.1 -1.0 29.3 34.2 5.1 6.1 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 10.2 10.0 12.4 -1.4 23.0 27.6 10.7 11.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 10.6 10.8 12.8 -0.9 32.3 36.2 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 10.7 10.7 12.7 -1.1 27.4 31.6 11.0 12.0 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 10.4 10.3 11.1 -1.1 26.2 30.8 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 10.5 10.1 11.7 -1.6 20.9 25.5 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 9.0 8.7 8.6 -1.4 22.3 27.3 9.3 10.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 10.9 10.5 12.3 -1.5 21.9 26.8 11.3 12.3 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 9.3 9.0 10.9 -1.5 21.8 26.3 9.7 10.6 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.3 7.2 8.5 -1.0 28.4 33.3 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 11.1 11.0 12.9 -1.2 26.9 31.5 11.4 12.5 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------