***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 11.4 12.0 14.0 -0.5 40.6 43.8 11.6 12.4 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 11.2 12.0 13.9 -0.4 41.9 44.6 11.4 12.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 12.8 13.5 14.0 -0.5 39.4 42.9 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 7.7 8.1 11.2 -0.8 34.7 40.2 8.0 8.9 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 9.9 10.2 11.3 -0.7 34.8 40.3 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 9.1 9.4 9.3 -0.6 37.5 41.7 9.3 9.9 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 11.5 12.2 13.9 -0.4 41.9 44.4 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 3.5 3.9 9.0 -0.7 35.1 39.4 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 11.1 11.5 11.5 -0.7 36.2 41.2 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 11.1 11.4 9.9 -0.7 35.1 39.9 11.3 12.0 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 10.7 11.0 10.6 -0.7 35.2 40.0 10.9 11.6 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 8.9 9.3 9.8 -0.6 37.0 40.9 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 10.4 10.8 9.5 -0.5 38.6 42.5 10.5 11.2 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 11.6 12.0 11.5 -0.7 36.3 41.0 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 12.2 12.4 12.5 -0.7 35.3 40.6 12.3 13.0 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 11.0 11.4 10.2 -0.6 37.4 41.7 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 11.7 12.4 13.8 -0.4 42.6 45.2 11.9 12.8 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 9.6 10.0 9.2 -0.7 35.3 40.0 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 11.5 12.1 13.9 -0.5 40.9 44.2 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.7 5.9 7.0 -0.7 35.0 38.9 5.8 6.6 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 11.0 11.4 13.0 -0.6 37.0 41.5 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 11.2 11.6 13.4 -0.5 39.7 43.3 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 10.9 11.5 13.6 -0.5 39.3 43.4 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 11.0 11.5 11.3 -0.6 36.8 41.3 11.3 12.1 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 11.0 11.5 12.4 -0.7 36.9 41.5 11.3 12.1 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.4 9.4 -0.3 42.4 44.9 10.0 10.7 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 10.9 11.6 13.2 -0.5 40.2 43.7 11.1 12.2 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 10.1 10.4 11.6 -0.7 35.8 40.8 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 7.7 8.0 8.4 -0.7 33.6 38.3 8.0 9.0 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 11.5 12.2 14.0 -0.5 40.9 43.9 11.7 12.7 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------