***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 46 54 100 9999.0 12.6 13.3 0.8 66.0 64.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 11.8 12.0 12.7 0.4 58.6 57.8 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 13.4 13.9 12.9 0.5 61.3 60.4 12.3 13.2 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 8.7 9.4 10.9 0.6 63.4 62.2 7.2 8.4 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 10.3 10.6 11.0 0.4 60.0 59.1 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 9.0 9.2 8.7 0.3 57.7 56.9 8.1 8.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 11.8 12.1 12.8 0.5 60.5 59.7 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 4.1 4.1 8.5 0.1 53.0 52.8 2.9 3.9 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 11.1 11.6 11.5 0.6 64.2 62.9 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 11.0 11.1 9.5 0.3 56.0 55.5 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 10.8 10.9 10.3 0.3 57.0 56.5 9.9 10.6 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 8.9 8.9 9.2 0.2 54.4 54.0 7.9 8.7 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 10.3 10.3 9.2 0.1 53.3 52.9 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 11.7 11.3 10.7 -0.2 46.0 46.4 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 12.4 12.6 12.7 1.1 75.4 73.1 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 11.5 11.6 10.0 0.3 56.5 55.8 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 12.0 12.0 12.2 0.2 55.3 54.9 10.8 11.8 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 9.3 9.1 8.4 0.0 50.0 50.2 8.4 9.1 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 11.8 12.1 12.6 0.4 57.7 57.0 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 5.3 5.0 6.2 -0.1 47.0 47.5 4.5 5.1 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 11.1 11.5 12.6 0.5 61.7 60.7 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 11.2 11.0 12.0 0.0 50.3 50.2 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 11.4 11.5 12.3 0.3 55.9 55.4 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 11.0 10.9 10.6 0.1 51.7 51.8 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 11.3 11.8 12.2 0.6 61.6 60.4 10.3 11.2 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 10.0 9.7 8.6 -0.1 48.0 48.2 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 12.2 13.1 12.8 0.8 65.9 64.2 10.6 11.9 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 10.3 10.3 11.5 0.7 66.2 64.7 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 8.4 8.0 7.5 -0.1 47.6 48.0 7.2 8.1 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 11.9 12.3 13.0 0.5 61.1 60.1 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------