***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 8.2 11.5 16.6 113.6 68.4 53.5 3.2 6.2 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 10.6 15.1 16.0 113.5 68.4 56.0 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.6 12.7 17.4 115.9 69.1 54.2 4.6 7.7 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.8 19.3 19.6 111.9 67.9 53.8 6.8 11.7 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 5.0 14.6 18.2 111.9 68.0 51.6 4.5 8.4 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 7.8 17.8 21.2 104.8 64.6 50.7 7.4 12.3 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 9.5 13.2 15.8 111.3 67.6 55.8 3.3 7.1 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 12.3 32.5 20.5 114.0 68.1 52.5 12.4 20.5 30.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.8 14.1 19.0 111.7 67.8 49.9 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.9 19.2 21.9 115.0 68.6 51.8 6.6 11.5 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.5 17.3 17.4 117.8 69.8 52.9 5.3 9.6 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.2 16.3 17.6 112.6 68.2 51.8 5.0 9.3 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.3 16.9 19.8 111.8 67.7 51.0 4.9 9.5 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 17.5 23.0 22.9 112.7 67.5 54.8 8.5 14.4 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.7 14.5 16.3 99.5 64.6 49.9 5.1 9.5 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 5.5 16.7 18.6 113.0 68.1 51.8 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 8.8 12.4 15.6 108.7 67.2 56.9 3.2 6.7 12.0 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 7.1 19.6 24.5 113.9 67.7 52.7 6.7 11.9 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 8.8 13.5 17.0 118.6 69.9 57.3 3.2 6.7 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.9 18.9 23.4 114.6 67.6 55.3 6.7 11.6 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.5 11.9 17.8 113.5 68.4 50.8 4.5 7.5 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 12.8 19.7 17.4 117.8 69.7 59.4 4.6 9.6 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 8.8 13.3 18.1 123.1 71.1 58.6 4.0 7.2 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.1 18.0 21.9 113.6 67.8 52.6 6.1 10.9 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.1 11.2 18.7 109.1 66.8 52.1 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 5.5 16.0 16.8 109.5 67.0 50.7 5.6 9.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.0 10.3 17.9 109.2 66.8 52.8 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.2 14.7 19.6 112.1 68.3 53.5 4.7 8.5 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.7 24.4 24.2 111.6 66.7 53.2 8.9 15.3 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.4 12.0 15.9 112.7 68.0 54.8 3.2 6.5 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------