***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.4 13.7 0.2 55.0 53.4 11.7 12.2 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 11.6 12.2 13.2 -0.1 46.5 47.0 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.1 13.8 0.2 55.7 53.9 13.3 13.9 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.1 11.1 0.2 56.1 54.2 8.2 8.9 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.9 11.0 11.6 0.3 58.4 56.2 10.3 10.8 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 10.1 10.3 9.7 0.8 75.2 68.4 9.1 9.6 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 11.7 12.2 13.3 -0.1 47.4 47.5 11.8 12.3 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 5.0 4.9 9.4 0.5 66.6 62.0 3.9 4.4 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.9 11.7 0.3 58.5 56.3 11.2 11.7 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 12.0 11.9 10.2 0.5 64.9 61.0 11.1 11.5 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.7 11.2 0.4 61.7 58.7 10.9 11.3 11.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 10.0 10.0 10.3 0.6 66.7 62.2 9.1 9.5 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 11.4 11.4 10.1 0.6 68.7 64.0 10.4 10.9 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.5 11.5 0.2 57.8 55.5 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.6 12.6 0.2 55.8 53.9 12.0 12.5 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 12.4 12.3 10.8 0.5 65.7 61.6 11.3 11.8 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 11.9 12.3 12.9 -0.2 43.6 44.7 12.0 12.5 13.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 10.6 10.6 9.5 0.6 68.7 64.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.2 13.3 -0.1 48.1 48.1 11.8 12.3 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 6.6 6.7 7.6 0.7 72.6 66.7 5.7 6.1 6.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.9 13.0 0.2 57.0 55.0 11.2 11.7 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 11.2 11.7 12.9 -0.1 46.8 47.1 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.9 13.2 0.0 50.6 50.0 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.0 11.4 0.4 61.9 58.6 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.1 12.4 0.1 53.6 52.4 11.4 12.0 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 10.9 11.1 9.8 0.8 73.2 67.0 10.0 10.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.5 13.1 0.2 54.8 53.3 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.9 11.7 0.3 59.6 56.7 10.2 10.6 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 9.3 9.3 8.8 0.6 68.4 63.7 8.1 8.7 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.7 12.4 13.6 0.0 50.0 49.5 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------