***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.4 12.6 15.9 121.6 71.4 53.9 3.2 6.2 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.5 14.9 15.0 111.6 68.1 53.6 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.8 13.0 15.9 117.0 69.8 53.5 4.6 7.7 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.9 22.3 19.1 130.9 73.2 53.2 6.8 11.7 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.6 16.2 19.3 123.9 71.4 50.3 4.5 8.4 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 15.4 18.6 24.6 109.1 66.2 54.5 7.4 12.3 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.7 12.6 14.8 106.6 66.5 52.4 3.3 7.1 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 25.5 30.6 20.0 106.6 65.7 50.5 12.4 20.5 30.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.7 15.3 19.6 120.9 70.4 49.8 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.7 17.9 21.2 107.5 66.0 49.4 6.6 11.5 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 5.8 16.9 16.6 115.4 68.9 49.6 5.3 9.6 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.4 16.0 15.9 112.1 67.7 50.2 5.0 9.3 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.5 17.3 19.6 115.2 68.3 52.3 4.9 9.5 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.3 21.6 19.6 103.8 65.1 51.2 8.5 14.4 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.4 18.6 16.4 128.2 72.9 54.9 5.1 9.5 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 5.5 17.2 18.2 117.1 69.3 51.5 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.7 12.9 14.4 113.5 68.1 52.9 3.2 6.7 12.0 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 7.2 17.7 23.9 102.7 64.1 49.2 6.7 11.9 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.5 13.0 14.9 114.2 68.9 53.6 3.2 6.7 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 6.8 17.5 25.3 105.0 64.5 50.7 6.7 11.6 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.7 13.4 17.2 128.6 72.6 51.6 4.5 7.5 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 13.8 19.2 14.0 115.1 68.8 54.4 4.6 9.6 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.4 12.3 15.4 112.6 68.4 52.6 4.0 7.2 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.2 17.1 20.2 106.2 65.8 50.7 6.1 10.9 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.3 13.2 19.9 128.5 72.7 54.8 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.6 17.2 15.6 120.0 69.8 53.6 5.6 9.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.4 11.3 18.2 116.6 69.8 53.9 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.2 16.3 17.9 125.1 72.0 52.7 4.7 8.5 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 9.1 22.5 23.8 102.0 63.7 49.1 8.9 15.3 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.6 12.0 15.1 110.5 68.0 53.4 3.2 6.5 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------