***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 22.8 24.0 24.1 0.0 50.5 49.6 23.0 23.9 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 23.2 24.7 24.4 0.4 57.8 54.3 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 23.2 24.4 24.2 0.1 51.5 50.1 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 15.9 16.7 22.2 -0.2 45.9 46.4 16.0 16.9 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 23.4 24.2 22.4 -0.2 45.2 45.7 23.6 24.5 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 23.3 22.6 20.2 -0.3 42.6 43.5 22.1 23.0 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 22.7 24.2 24.2 0.3 55.3 52.7 23.0 23.9 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 11.3 12.0 20.6 -0.3 43.1 43.7 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 22.7 23.7 22.9 -0.2 46.0 46.2 23.0 23.9 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 22.7 23.5 21.4 -0.2 44.9 45.2 22.9 23.8 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 23.0 23.8 21.9 -0.2 44.9 45.3 23.2 24.1 24.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 22.1 22.8 21.4 -0.4 42.5 43.2 22.3 23.1 23.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 23.2 23.8 21.0 -0.4 41.0 42.2 23.4 24.3 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 22.9 24.0 22.5 -0.1 48.0 47.7 23.2 24.1 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 23.7 24.5 22.9 -0.2 46.7 47.1 23.8 24.7 25.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 23.7 24.5 21.6 -0.3 43.3 44.0 23.9 24.8 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 22.5 24.1 24.2 0.4 58.2 54.9 22.7 23.7 24.6 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 22.3 23.1 20.7 -0.2 45.2 45.5 22.5 23.3 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 22.8 24.2 24.4 0.4 57.3 53.9 22.9 23.8 24.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 17.4 18.2 18.5 -0.4 42.5 43.2 17.6 18.5 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 22.9 23.9 23.6 -0.2 46.9 46.9 23.2 24.1 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 23.0 24.6 24.1 0.4 57.3 54.2 23.2 24.2 25.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 23.1 24.4 24.0 0.2 53.9 51.6 23.3 24.2 25.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 22.5 23.5 22.4 -0.1 47.4 47.2 22.8 23.6 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 23.0 24.0 22.5 -0.2 46.4 46.8 23.2 24.2 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 22.7 23.2 20.7 -0.4 40.9 42.1 22.9 23.6 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 22.8 23.9 23.3 0.0 49.0 48.6 23.0 23.9 24.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 23.6 24.4 22.5 -0.2 46.0 46.4 23.8 24.6 25.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 17.3 18.1 19.7 -0.3 44.5 44.9 17.5 18.4 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 23.0 24.5 24.5 0.3 56.0 53.1 23.2 24.1 25.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------