***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 11.8 13.0 20.9 136.2 74.4 61.1 3.6 6.3 10.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.3 15.1 15.7 113.9 68.2 57.3 4.4 8.4 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.5 13.5 19.8 123.3 71.0 57.1 4.0 7.2 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.2 19.8 22.3 128.5 72.3 57.4 5.2 9.8 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.4 16.6 22.3 132.6 73.3 56.9 5.3 9.0 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 14.0 18.4 25.4 118.1 68.6 53.4 5.9 10.7 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.0 13.1 17.0 121.0 70.3 57.8 3.2 6.5 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 25.9 28.8 21.7 99.9 62.6 51.1 13.3 21.3 31.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.5 15.4 23.2 127.4 72.0 56.4 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.8 18.5 24.6 111.1 66.8 54.0 7.1 11.9 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.8 16.5 19.9 117.1 68.8 54.1 6.0 10.1 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.3 15.6 19.2 104.4 64.2 51.7 5.6 10.2 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.8 16.1 22.0 109.6 66.0 52.2 4.6 9.3 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.3 17.5 23.6 103.1 63.9 52.0 6.9 11.9 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.7 19.7 20.9 139.2 75.2 58.2 4.3 8.5 14.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.5 16.7 21.5 121.2 69.9 54.8 6.3 10.2 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.6 12.6 16.6 118.3 69.4 54.8 3.2 6.4 11.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 14.1 17.0 27.0 106.4 65.2 54.5 7.3 11.7 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.8 11.8 16.4 112.9 68.0 56.5 3.7 6.8 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.7 16.1 25.1 98.2 61.4 51.6 7.5 12.1 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.5 12.8 21.8 129.1 72.6 57.1 3.4 6.3 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.8 18.8 18.3 125.3 71.4 55.1 5.2 9.8 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.9 10.2 17.6 110.7 67.2 54.5 3.3 6.1 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.9 17.3 24.2 112.1 67.3 54.8 6.7 11.1 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 11.6 13.5 24.6 140.9 75.5 61.6 3.9 6.7 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.7 14.7 18.9 101.9 63.5 51.7 5.2 9.7 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 12.8 14.6 23.4 140.6 75.4 61.9 3.4 6.6 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.9 17.9 22.2 133.0 73.5 57.3 5.3 9.3 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.0 26.0 26.4 103.0 63.9 53.5 13.8 19.9 27.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.0 11.6 17.0 119.2 69.8 58.1 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------