***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 24.1 23.2 22.8 -0.4 40.5 42.5 22.8 23.7 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 24.4 23.7 22.8 -0.4 42.5 43.9 23.1 24.1 25.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 24.4 23.6 23.0 -0.4 40.8 42.6 23.1 24.1 24.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 15.7 15.9 20.1 -0.7 35.2 38.2 15.8 16.7 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 24.6 23.7 21.1 -0.5 39.3 41.9 23.4 24.3 25.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 23.0 22.4 18.8 -0.3 43.5 45.2 21.8 22.7 23.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 24.0 23.4 22.9 -0.2 45.3 46.3 22.8 23.7 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 12.4 11.8 19.2 -0.3 43.1 44.7 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 24.0 23.2 21.6 -0.4 41.3 43.5 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 23.8 23.2 20.1 -0.3 42.8 44.7 22.7 23.5 24.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 24.1 23.4 21.1 -0.4 41.7 43.8 22.9 23.8 24.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 23.1 22.5 20.2 -0.4 42.1 43.9 22.1 22.9 23.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 24.3 23.6 20.1 -0.3 43.3 44.9 23.1 24.0 24.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 24.2 23.6 21.5 -0.3 44.6 45.8 23.0 23.9 24.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 23.5 23.6 21.5 -0.8 32.1 35.1 23.6 24.4 25.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 24.8 24.1 20.5 -0.4 42.1 44.0 23.6 24.5 25.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 23.7 23.2 22.7 -0.2 45.8 46.7 22.5 23.4 24.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 23.4 22.8 19.5 -0.3 44.5 45.8 22.3 23.1 23.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 23.9 23.1 22.8 -0.4 41.1 42.7 22.7 23.6 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 18.6 18.0 17.2 -0.2 45.0 45.9 17.4 18.3 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 24.2 23.3 22.5 -0.5 39.7 42.1 22.9 23.9 24.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 24.3 23.6 22.5 -0.3 43.0 44.3 23.0 23.9 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 24.3 23.6 22.7 -0.4 41.9 43.5 23.1 24.0 24.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 23.7 23.1 21.4 -0.3 43.3 44.8 22.6 23.4 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 22.9 23.3 21.3 -0.6 37.7 40.3 23.0 23.9 24.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 23.6 23.2 19.5 -0.2 45.8 46.9 22.6 23.4 24.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 24.1 23.2 22.1 -0.4 40.3 42.4 22.8 23.7 24.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 24.7 23.6 20.6 -0.7 34.8 37.7 23.6 24.4 25.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.5 17.9 18.7 -0.2 45.3 46.4 17.3 18.2 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 24.2 23.5 22.9 -0.4 42.2 43.8 22.9 23.9 24.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------