***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.6 12.2 -0.6 40.7 42.3 11.2 12.1 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 12.4 11.7 12.0 -0.4 42.2 43.7 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 14.0 13.1 12.4 -0.5 40.7 42.2 12.6 13.6 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.2 8.0 9.7 -0.5 41.5 42.9 7.4 8.7 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.3 10.3 -0.4 42.0 43.4 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.6 9.1 7.9 -0.3 43.6 44.9 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.5 11.6 12.0 -0.5 41.5 43.1 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 4.5 3.8 8.0 -0.3 43.5 44.8 3.1 4.2 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.2 10.6 -0.3 43.5 44.6 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.0 9.0 -0.3 43.5 44.6 10.5 11.3 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.5 10.8 9.9 -0.4 42.3 43.5 10.4 11.2 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.4 8.8 8.8 -0.4 42.2 43.5 8.4 9.2 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.9 10.4 8.8 -0.3 43.5 45.0 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.4 11.8 10.5 -0.2 45.8 46.8 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 11.4 11.9 11.2 -0.4 41.4 43.3 11.5 12.2 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.2 9.3 -0.4 42.5 43.9 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.0 11.8 -0.4 42.5 44.1 11.5 12.4 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.0 9.4 8.5 -0.3 44.1 45.4 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.5 11.8 12.0 -0.4 42.5 43.9 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 6.0 5.6 6.4 -0.2 46.3 47.5 5.0 5.7 6.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.1 11.9 -0.4 41.9 43.2 10.6 11.5 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.1 11.8 -0.4 42.2 43.8 10.6 11.5 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 11.9 11.4 11.9 -0.3 44.1 45.3 10.9 11.7 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.1 10.4 -0.3 43.6 45.0 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.4 11.2 -0.6 39.9 41.7 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 10.4 10.0 8.2 -0.2 45.4 46.6 9.5 10.2 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 12.7 11.6 11.7 -0.6 40.5 42.3 11.1 12.2 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.0 10.2 -0.4 41.7 43.4 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 8.8 8.1 7.7 -0.2 45.1 46.2 7.3 8.4 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 12.7 11.9 12.2 -0.5 41.7 43.1 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------