***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 12.6 11.9 12.9 -0.2 45.5 45.5 11.2 12.2 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 12.7 12.2 12.8 -0.1 48.4 47.9 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.8 13.0 -0.2 46.1 46.4 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.2 8.5 10.5 -0.2 46.5 47.3 7.5 8.7 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.2 10.6 10.6 -0.1 47.3 47.9 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.5 8.8 0.1 51.4 51.3 8.6 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.2 12.9 -0.1 49.0 48.2 11.2 12.2 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.5 8.6 0.1 52.4 51.8 3.4 4.4 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.0 11.5 10.8 -0.1 47.9 48.5 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.5 9.4 0.0 50.4 50.5 10.5 11.5 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.4 10.1 0.0 50.3 50.4 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.6 9.3 0.1 51.7 51.1 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.5 8.8 -0.2 45.7 46.8 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 12.7 12.0 10.6 -0.2 44.5 46.1 11.4 12.3 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 12.8 12.5 11.8 0.0 49.4 49.5 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.7 9.6 -0.1 47.9 48.5 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.5 12.7 0.0 49.7 49.1 11.5 12.5 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.0 8.7 0.0 49.9 50.4 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.1 12.8 -0.1 47.7 47.4 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.1 6.6 0.0 49.6 49.8 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.3 12.1 -0.2 45.2 46.2 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.6 12.4 -0.1 47.7 47.6 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.7 12.5 -0.2 46.5 46.9 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.5 10.5 -0.1 47.1 48.4 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 10.7 11.5 11.4 -0.3 43.4 44.4 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.6 8.8 0.3 55.9 53.8 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.0 12.2 -0.2 45.4 45.6 11.3 12.3 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.5 10.9 -0.1 47.9 48.5 9.7 10.6 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.6 8.0 0.0 49.2 49.8 7.6 8.7 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.2 12.9 -0.1 47.3 46.9 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------