***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 13.7 13.6 109.2 66.2 44.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.0 13.6 16.5 120.0 69.5 47.6 4.8 8.1 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.8 18.3 14.8 126.6 71.6 47.0 5.9 10.1 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 8.1 21.6 18.6 113.4 67.3 47.9 8.4 13.9 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 8.5 20.5 17.9 113.0 67.3 48.6 8.5 13.4 19.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.5 12.3 23.1 97.4 61.2 48.6 4.2 8.2 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.5 12.4 16.0 107.0 65.3 46.4 4.1 7.7 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 11.6 27.1 18.6 111.2 66.7 50.8 11.4 18.1 26.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 5.4 16.7 16.7 113.8 67.7 48.0 5.4 9.8 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 8.4 21.2 19.2 114.6 67.8 49.8 8.3 13.6 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.8 15.2 16.9 113.4 67.6 49.1 5.7 9.5 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 5.3 15.6 15.3 106.1 65.6 48.3 5.2 9.8 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.9 12.6 18.8 97.7 61.9 46.7 4.7 8.8 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 6.6 17.7 17.0 115.2 67.7 46.7 7.0 11.3 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 5.8 17.8 16.6 115.8 68.6 46.9 5.6 10.3 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.7 12.9 17.5 102.9 64.0 47.2 4.8 8.5 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.0 10.9 15.7 106.4 64.9 45.5 3.9 7.1 11.2 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 6.2 18.5 20.5 116.4 68.1 49.1 6.3 11.1 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 5.8 18.5 15.9 127.3 71.8 48.1 5.7 10.1 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.9 17.0 23.4 113.1 67.0 52.9 7.0 11.2 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 4.4 14.8 14.1 113.5 67.6 46.1 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.4 12.8 14.5 110.0 65.8 45.9 4.2 7.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.9 14.2 15.2 129.5 72.5 48.1 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 4.9 17.5 17.4 121.0 69.7 47.4 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 5.6 15.5 17.8 106.2 64.6 47.1 5.3 9.9 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 6.3 17.2 19.0 115.2 68.2 50.8 6.1 10.4 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 5.2 14.8 16.2 102.2 63.4 45.7 5.4 9.8 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 5.3 15.6 17.4 112.3 67.3 47.3 5.4 9.6 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 9.9 24.3 20.8 114.9 67.6 50.0 9.9 15.9 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.8 15.9 16.1 122.1 70.2 47.6 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------