***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2012.-13.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 11.6 16.6 110.1 66.2 57.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.1 10.2 15.6 120.4 69.7 59.3 2.9 5.6 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 8.5 10.5 15.4 104.6 64.0 55.6 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.6 17.2 91.9 57.4 50.7 6.6 11.8 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.8 17.5 93.6 58.1 51.2 4.2 8.2 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.8 13.8 20.3 100.4 61.2 52.4 5.0 9.6 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.6 12.4 16.0 124.0 70.8 60.4 3.7 6.7 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 19.5 18.6 17.4 88.8 56.4 50.0 9.3 15.6 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 10.2 11.5 17.1 99.3 61.5 54.1 4.7 8.3 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 12.2 13.2 19.0 97.1 60.4 53.8 5.3 9.7 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.3 16.1 91.0 57.2 50.2 5.4 8.6 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.8 9.0 14.2 83.2 54.0 46.9 4.4 8.0 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.2 16.6 87.1 55.6 47.9 3.4 6.2 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.6 14.0 18.4 105.2 63.7 54.9 4.6 9.0 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.3 14.8 90.3 58.0 49.2 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.9 8.8 15.5 84.5 53.9 46.7 4.9 7.9 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 9.8 15.1 15.7 125.7 71.4 58.5 3.8 7.5 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.7 13.5 20.4 99.0 60.5 53.3 5.2 9.7 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 12.5 17.7 15.8 116.9 68.6 58.1 5.2 9.8 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.4 11.9 20.2 91.2 56.2 50.2 6.4 10.2 14.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 10.9 13.0 16.5 104.7 63.7 55.8 4.6 8.6 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 8.9 11.9 15.0 112.8 67.2 55.1 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 8.6 11.9 16.4 114.8 68.0 58.2 4.0 7.1 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.7 15.3 18.4 102.6 62.4 54.0 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.2 14.5 20.0 106.3 63.5 56.1 4.9 9.3 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.5 6.6 15.1 80.0 51.6 44.4 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 11.2 14.8 19.4 113.7 67.0 59.0 4.5 8.6 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.9 10.8 15.5 87.1 55.8 48.6 5.2 9.2 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 17.2 17.6 20.4 97.8 59.6 52.1 8.4 13.9 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.5 12.3 15.5 115.1 68.1 58.8 2.9 6.4 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------