***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 9999.0 12.5 13.6 1.1 80.4 76.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 12.4 12.5 13.4 0.9 75.5 72.5 11.0 11.6 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 14.1 14.4 13.4 1.0 79.9 76.1 12.6 13.3 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 9.1 9.3 11.2 0.7 75.1 71.2 7.5 8.2 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 10.8 11.0 11.2 0.8 76.3 72.3 9.5 10.1 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 9.5 9.6 9.1 0.6 72.0 68.0 8.4 8.9 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 12.3 12.4 13.3 0.8 74.0 71.3 11.1 11.6 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 4.5 4.7 9.2 0.7 75.1 70.9 3.2 3.8 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 11.6 11.9 11.7 0.8 77.9 73.6 10.5 11.0 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 11.5 11.7 10.0 0.8 76.4 72.1 10.4 10.9 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 11.3 11.5 10.7 0.8 77.5 73.0 10.2 10.7 11.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 9.5 9.6 10.0 0.7 75.1 70.7 8.4 8.9 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 10.8 10.9 9.4 0.6 70.9 67.1 9.7 10.2 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 12.2 12.4 11.6 0.8 75.1 71.8 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 12.6 12.8 12.0 0.8 76.4 72.1 11.3 11.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 11.9 12.0 10.2 0.7 74.0 69.7 10.6 11.2 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 12.5 12.6 13.0 0.7 71.1 68.7 11.4 11.9 12.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 10.0 10.1 9.2 0.7 74.9 70.8 8.8 9.3 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 12.4 12.6 13.4 1.0 78.1 74.7 11.1 11.6 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 6.1 6.2 7.3 0.7 73.0 68.9 5.0 5.5 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 11.7 11.9 12.7 0.9 78.4 74.2 10.5 11.0 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 11.7 11.8 12.9 0.7 71.9 69.5 10.6 11.1 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 12.0 12.3 13.1 1.0 80.5 76.7 10.7 11.3 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 11.7 11.9 11.3 0.8 77.2 73.4 10.5 11.0 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 12.1 12.4 12.2 0.9 78.7 74.8 10.7 11.3 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 9.9 10.3 9.3 0.4 65.3 62.5 9.2 9.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 12.6 12.9 12.9 1.0 78.6 74.9 11.0 11.7 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 10.5 10.6 11.4 0.6 73.3 69.5 9.4 9.9 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 8.8 9.0 8.5 0.7 75.5 71.1 7.4 8.0 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 12.5 12.7 13.5 0.9 77.4 74.2 11.2 11.7 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------