***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 21.9 23.1 22.0 -0.5 42.6 43.8 22.2 23.7 25.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 22.1 23.5 22.2 -0.4 44.6 45.1 22.5 23.9 25.3 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 22.0 23.2 21.9 -0.8 40.1 41.7 22.5 24.0 25.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 14.5 15.3 19.8 -1.0 35.9 38.5 15.0 16.4 17.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 22.0 22.8 19.9 -1.1 35.1 37.9 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 20.4 21.0 17.5 -1.4 31.7 34.7 21.1 22.4 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.1 22.2 -0.3 46.2 46.4 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 9.8 10.4 18.1 -1.5 32.0 35.1 10.4 11.8 13.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 21.4 22.2 20.3 -1.1 35.4 38.2 22.0 23.4 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 21.4 22.0 19.0 -1.3 33.5 36.5 21.9 23.2 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 21.6 22.2 19.3 -1.3 33.5 36.5 22.1 23.5 24.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 20.7 21.2 18.8 -1.5 31.4 34.6 21.3 22.6 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 21.8 22.3 18.2 -1.5 31.6 34.6 22.4 23.7 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 21.8 22.6 20.2 -1.2 35.7 38.1 22.4 23.8 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 22.0 22.7 20.1 -1.0 35.9 38.4 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 22.2 22.8 18.9 -1.3 32.7 35.7 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 23.7 22.8 22.1 -0.2 46.9 46.8 21.6 23.1 24.5 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 21.1 21.7 18.3 -1.4 33.4 36.4 21.6 22.9 24.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 21.6 22.8 22.1 -0.6 42.6 43.6 22.0 23.4 24.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 15.8 16.5 16.1 -1.5 32.6 35.7 16.5 17.9 19.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 21.6 22.6 21.2 -0.9 37.7 40.0 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 22.0 23.2 21.9 -0.5 43.2 44.1 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 21.9 23.0 21.7 -0.8 39.5 41.2 22.4 23.9 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 21.3 22.1 20.1 -1.2 35.6 38.2 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 21.7 22.8 20.4 -0.7 40.4 42.1 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 21.1 21.6 18.0 -1.4 32.0 34.9 21.7 22.9 24.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 21.8 22.9 21.3 -0.5 42.9 44.1 22.1 23.5 24.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 21.9 22.5 19.9 -1.1 34.0 36.9 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 15.9 16.5 17.3 -1.4 33.1 36.2 16.5 17.9 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 21.9 23.2 22.2 -0.5 43.7 44.5 22.3 23.7 25.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------