***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 20.1 20.0 19.4 -1.7 27.0 29.6 20.6 22.2 23.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 20.5 20.4 19.5 -1.5 29.6 31.8 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 20.2 20.1 19.3 -1.8 25.9 28.5 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 12.4 12.0 16.0 -2.6 17.5 21.0 13.7 15.1 16.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 19.9 19.6 17.0 -2.4 20.1 23.2 20.9 22.4 23.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 17.8 17.3 14.0 -3.2 15.6 19.1 19.3 20.8 22.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 22.6 20.3 19.5 -1.4 30.8 32.7 20.5 21.9 23.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 7.5 7.2 15.1 -2.5 20.2 23.4 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 19.4 19.1 18.1 -2.3 21.5 24.5 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 19.3 19.1 16.2 -2.4 21.1 24.1 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 19.4 19.1 16.6 -2.6 19.3 22.5 20.5 22.0 23.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 18.4 18.1 15.7 -2.7 18.4 21.6 19.6 21.1 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 19.1 18.9 15.6 -2.8 18.0 21.0 20.5 22.0 23.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 20.0 20.0 18.2 -1.8 27.1 29.2 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 87 13 0 100 19.6 19.1 17.5 -2.7 15.9 19.4 20.9 22.3 23.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 19.8 19.5 16.1 -2.7 18.0 21.2 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 22.1 19.9 19.4 -1.3 31.7 33.6 20.0 21.5 22.9 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 18.9 18.8 15.7 -2.2 23.9 26.6 19.7 21.2 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 19.9 19.8 19.5 -1.6 28.6 30.9 20.2 21.8 23.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 14.3 14.2 13.7 -2.0 25.3 27.9 15.0 16.4 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 19.8 19.6 18.8 -2.1 23.2 26.1 20.6 22.1 23.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 20.2 20.3 19.3 -1.4 30.3 32.3 20.5 22.0 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 20.2 20.0 19.3 -1.7 27.1 29.3 20.6 22.1 23.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 19.4 19.4 17.7 -2.0 25.0 27.6 20.2 21.6 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 20.2 19.8 17.8 -2.0 23.8 26.6 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 88 12 0 100 18.4 18.2 14.9 -2.8 17.8 20.7 19.8 21.3 22.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 20.2 20.0 18.8 -1.7 27.3 29.8 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 87 13 0 100 19.5 19.0 16.5 -2.8 15.7 19.3 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 14.0 14.0 15.1 -2.0 25.4 27.9 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 20.3 20.1 19.6 -1.5 28.9 31.1 20.5 22.0 23.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------