***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.2 13.1 -0.1 47.9 47.8 11.4 12.3 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 12.4 11.9 13.0 -0.1 47.5 47.5 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.4 12.8 -0.2 45.3 45.9 12.7 13.6 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.0 10.6 -0.4 41.7 43.2 7.3 8.5 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.5 10.6 -0.3 43.6 44.5 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.8 9.4 8.9 -0.2 45.7 45.8 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.1 13.2 0.0 49.9 49.4 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 4.6 3.9 8.8 -0.3 44.3 44.4 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.4 11.0 -0.2 45.5 45.8 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.3 9.5 -0.2 45.2 45.4 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.1 10.1 -0.3 43.6 44.2 10.6 11.3 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.2 9.6 -0.4 42.9 43.4 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.6 9.1 -0.4 42.7 43.7 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.5 11.9 11.0 -0.3 44.2 45.0 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.2 11.1 -0.4 41.3 43.0 11.7 12.6 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.4 9.8 -0.3 43.6 44.4 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 11.3 12.3 12.9 -0.1 48.4 48.2 11.5 12.4 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.4 9.9 8.8 -0.2 45.8 45.8 9.3 10.1 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.0 12.9 -0.2 45.5 46.1 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.1 7.1 -0.2 46.3 45.9 5.4 6.3 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.3 12.1 -0.3 44.7 45.2 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 10.6 11.3 12.6 -0.3 44.3 45.2 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.5 12.4 -0.3 43.5 44.5 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.4 10.8 -0.3 44.9 45.4 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.4 11.8 11.3 -0.3 44.3 45.0 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.0 9.3 -0.3 43.1 43.5 9.5 10.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.4 11.9 12.2 -0.1 47.3 47.4 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.3 10.9 -0.4 41.8 43.2 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.1 8.2 -0.2 46.0 45.9 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.2 13.1 -0.1 47.5 47.6 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------