***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 5.2 8.5 12.9 69.5 47.9 40.5 5.4 9.0 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.8 8.0 11.4 69.1 48.1 40.8 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 5.0 8.0 12.7 69.7 47.4 39.6 4.9 8.6 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 6.6 9.2 12.4 58.6 37.9 31.9 7.6 13.6 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.4 8.2 14.4 71.5 46.4 39.4 5.1 9.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 15.9 11.9 15.9 79.3 49.3 43.4 6.6 12.1 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 5.6 8.7 11.0 66.9 46.7 40.3 5.8 9.5 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 25.7 22.2 19.5 86.4 53.6 46.8 11.4 20.1 31.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 6.0 9.8 15.1 75.4 48.7 41.4 5.6 10.2 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.7 11.8 19.5 81.7 51.3 44.4 6.5 11.4 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 6.0 10.2 15.4 78.2 50.1 42.7 5.7 10.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.8 13.5 16.3 88.0 55.0 46.9 7.6 12.1 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.9 12.0 17.8 93.7 58.6 50.7 5.7 9.6 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.0 14.2 20.1 86.7 54.7 45.5 6.3 12.0 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 3.8 5.1 8.5 47.7 35.4 28.5 4.6 8.0 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.3 10.9 15.9 86.2 54.0 46.7 5.9 9.7 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 5.9 9.5 10.6 62.5 44.8 38.6 6.1 11.2 18.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.9 13.8 20.7 87.7 54.0 46.6 6.9 12.4 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 7.4 12.0 12.0 70.9 48.5 41.0 7.0 12.5 19.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 14.4 15.5 22.7 99.8 60.2 52.4 7.7 12.2 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 5.7 9.0 13.6 70.2 47.2 39.5 5.8 9.7 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 7.0 10.6 12.3 72.9 49.8 41.9 6.8 10.7 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 6.9 11.4 13.2 73.1 48.6 40.8 6.8 11.8 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.6 12.2 17.3 81.2 51.9 43.4 6.0 11.5 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 5.9 8.7 13.2 62.5 42.7 36.6 6.2 11.0 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 11.0 11.0 15.4 91.4 57.3 50.7 5.4 9.1 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 6.2 9.4 12.8 64.8 44.5 38.1 6.7 11.0 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 4.0 5.7 12.1 60.5 40.0 33.5 4.2 8.0 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.3 17.2 21.4 92.5 56.4 48.7 7.6 13.9 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.8 8.3 11.8 70.7 48.9 41.2 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------