***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 11.4 12.1 13.1 1.2 70.2 62.2 10.4 11.1 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.7 12.0 12.3 0.7 62.9 57.2 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 13.3 14.0 13.0 1.1 69.9 61.4 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 9.3 9.8 10.5 1.3 75.2 64.9 7.1 8.2 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 10.6 11.0 11.1 1.3 75.0 65.9 9.0 9.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 9.5 10.2 9.0 1.8 84.3 74.7 7.9 8.6 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.9 12.4 0.8 64.0 57.6 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 4.6 4.9 8.4 1.2 73.9 66.1 2.9 3.7 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.6 10.9 1.1 71.6 64.4 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 11.2 11.4 9.2 1.2 73.8 65.6 9.8 10.5 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.6 11.3 10.3 1.1 73.1 64.9 9.6 10.3 11.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 9.3 9.7 9.5 1.3 76.1 67.2 7.7 8.5 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 10.7 11.3 9.6 1.5 80.6 70.6 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.9 10.5 0.9 69.1 60.3 10.4 11.1 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 12.1 12.6 12.1 1.5 79.1 67.1 10.5 11.3 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 11.9 12.4 10.1 1.4 78.1 68.1 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.9 11.9 0.5 59.8 55.0 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 9.6 9.9 8.7 1.3 75.1 65.7 8.1 8.8 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.7 12.0 12.3 0.7 63.0 57.2 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 5.9 6.3 7.0 1.5 78.3 69.9 4.4 5.1 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 11.4 11.6 12.2 1.1 71.9 63.5 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.1 11.8 0.5 59.2 54.8 10.0 10.7 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.5 12.2 0.7 63.5 57.5 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.8 11.5 10.6 1.1 72.2 62.9 9.9 10.6 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.8 12.0 1.2 71.1 62.9 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 10.7 11.4 9.4 1.9 84.0 74.0 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.9 12.7 1.3 71.6 63.1 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 10.3 10.9 11.2 1.6 80.3 68.1 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 8.9 9.1 7.9 1.1 72.3 65.0 7.1 7.9 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.6 12.1 12.7 0.8 65.3 58.7 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------