***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 11.5 12.5 13.7 2.4 86.5 83.3 8.9 9.9 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 11.7 12.9 13.5 2.6 90.5 87.2 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 13.3 14.6 13.6 2.7 90.5 87.4 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 8.2 9.9 11.4 2.7 92.2 88.1 5.5 6.5 7.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 10.2 12.4 11.9 2.8 94.1 90.2 7.1 8.2 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 8.9 10.6 9.8 2.9 94.0 90.8 6.3 7.2 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 11.5 12.5 13.4 2.4 88.8 85.4 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 3.9 6.1 10.1 3.2 95.7 93.3 1.3 2.3 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 5 95 100 10.7 12.4 12.3 2.8 94.0 90.8 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 10.7 12.5 10.8 3.1 95.7 93.1 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 10.3 12.1 11.3 2.8 95.0 91.7 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 8.7 10.4 10.6 3.0 95.1 92.3 6.5 7.3 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 9.8 11.8 10.5 3.0 96.1 92.7 7.4 8.3 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 11.1 12.7 12.3 3.1 95.5 92.8 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 11.6 12.7 12.4 2.4 89.5 85.8 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 11.3 13.5 11.1 2.9 95.4 91.9 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 11.6 12.8 13.2 2.6 91.6 88.3 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 8.6 10.4 9.9 3.1 96.4 94.1 6.5 7.3 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 11.4 12.6 13.5 2.7 91.2 88.0 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 5.6 7.6 7.8 3.0 96.5 94.4 3.2 4.1 4.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 10.8 12.3 13.3 2.7 91.4 88.1 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 10.9 12.2 13.3 2.7 93.1 89.8 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 11.0 12.2 13.3 2.7 92.3 89.2 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 10.6 11.9 12.0 2.9 94.6 91.9 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 11.2 12.2 12.4 2.3 86.3 82.6 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 9.6 11.5 10.6 3.4 95.5 91.8 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 12.4 13.5 12.9 2.3 85.4 82.0 8.7 10.1 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 9.7 11.3 11.9 2.7 92.6 88.7 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 8.3 10.6 9.1 2.9 96.3 94.0 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 11.7 12.9 13.7 2.5 89.5 86.2 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------