***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.2 9.0 16.1 85.2 54.5 45.2 4.0 7.8 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.5 7.6 13.6 83.0 55.5 45.1 3.6 6.4 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.8 8.3 15.9 85.0 54.9 45.4 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.3 12.3 17.9 88.9 55.5 44.8 4.9 10.1 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.3 8.7 17.4 84.7 54.4 44.7 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 5.7 10.8 20.4 88.4 53.9 46.2 5.2 9.6 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.4 8.1 13.3 85.4 56.6 45.8 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 10.6 15.4 15.5 73.7 48.2 39.7 10.5 16.0 22.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.3 8.6 18.3 84.8 54.2 43.4 3.7 7.4 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.8 10.0 17.2 75.4 48.8 39.3 5.7 10.3 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.6 6.2 16.8 76.8 49.1 40.8 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.7 8.2 15.6 78.7 51.1 42.9 4.6 7.9 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.1 4.8 16.2 71.4 46.9 39.6 2.8 5.3 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 11.0 7.7 19.0 79.0 49.8 41.8 3.7 7.7 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.3 10.7 19.2 103.7 63.7 51.6 3.5 6.8 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.4 7.1 17.1 80.2 50.7 42.2 4.2 7.0 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.7 9.4 12.5 79.4 53.1 42.7 4.4 8.4 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.6 11.5 19.6 81.8 50.4 41.6 6.3 11.4 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 4.3 9.5 13.8 79.2 52.9 43.2 4.4 8.6 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 4.6 8.0 16.8 72.5 45.0 36.9 5.1 9.5 15.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.1 8.7 17.0 84.8 54.2 43.3 3.8 7.5 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.1 8.7 12.1 76.1 50.8 42.2 4.6 8.5 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.1 6.1 14.9 77.2 50.8 42.2 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.0 10.8 18.5 81.8 51.6 43.3 5.7 10.2 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.6 11.1 19.1 88.6 55.0 46.2 5.3 9.6 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.5 17.8 87.9 55.2 47.9 3.2 6.3 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.5 9.8 17.8 87.3 55.1 46.3 4.0 8.2 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.2 9.4 18.0 90.3 56.8 46.2 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.9 12.7 19.5 81.5 50.3 41.7 6.7 12.6 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.7 8.8 14.1 83.8 55.8 46.1 3.3 7.1 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------