***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 24.2 24.8 22.8 1.0 63.4 56.2 21.6 23.4 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 24.7 25.4 22.7 1.1 64.5 57.2 22.2 23.9 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 24.6 25.4 23.1 1.1 64.0 56.7 22.2 24.0 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.4 18.1 20.6 1.1 64.5 56.3 14.9 16.6 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 24.9 25.6 21.2 1.1 64.0 56.6 22.4 24.2 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 20.8 24.1 19.2 1.3 66.6 58.8 21.1 22.6 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 24.3 25.0 22.7 1.0 63.8 56.9 22.0 23.6 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.8 13.7 19.7 1.3 66.8 59.2 10.5 12.1 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 24.3 25.0 21.5 1.1 64.2 56.9 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 24.2 25.0 20.4 1.2 65.4 58.0 21.8 23.5 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 24.5 25.4 21.0 1.3 66.2 58.4 22.1 23.8 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 21.0 24.4 20.7 1.4 68.0 59.7 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 22.1 25.6 19.9 1.3 67.1 59.3 22.4 24.0 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 21.7 25.0 21.1 0.9 61.7 56.2 22.0 23.8 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 24.9 25.8 21.5 1.1 66.5 56.9 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 22.4 26.0 20.6 1.3 67.0 59.0 22.7 24.4 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 24.0 24.5 22.5 0.9 62.8 56.6 21.7 23.3 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 23.7 24.4 19.9 1.2 64.8 58.0 21.3 23.0 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 24.1 24.9 22.9 1.1 64.9 57.5 21.7 23.4 25.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.8 19.6 17.5 1.3 66.1 59.0 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 24.5 25.1 22.3 1.0 62.8 55.9 22.1 23.8 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 24.5 25.0 22.3 0.9 62.0 56.1 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 24.5 25.3 22.8 1.1 64.7 57.5 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.0 24.6 21.2 1.0 63.2 56.9 21.5 23.3 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 24.5 25.0 21.1 0.9 62.3 55.4 22.1 23.8 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 25.1 25.6 20.4 2.0 75.8 64.2 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 21.8 25.0 22.0 1.0 63.0 56.0 22.0 23.7 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 22.3 25.6 20.9 1.1 65.6 57.1 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 16.0 19.5 19.0 1.2 64.4 57.9 16.3 18.0 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 24.5 25.2 22.8 1.0 64.0 56.7 22.1 23.8 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------