***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.6 13.1 0.4 57.3 54.0 11.2 12.2 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.6 13.0 0.4 56.9 53.5 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 12.8 14.4 13.2 0.4 58.2 54.5 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.3 10.6 0.4 58.1 55.1 7.5 8.7 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.3 10.7 0.4 58.5 55.6 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.8 10.0 8.9 0.5 60.9 57.3 8.6 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.6 13.0 0.3 56.0 53.1 11.2 12.2 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.8 5.0 8.5 0.5 59.9 56.9 3.4 4.4 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.1 10.9 0.4 58.4 55.5 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.8 12.0 9.4 0.4 58.8 56.0 10.5 11.5 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.9 10.1 0.5 59.8 56.7 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.0 9.2 0.5 59.9 56.8 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.1 8.8 0.3 57.0 54.7 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.7 10.8 0.3 57.2 54.3 11.4 12.3 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.9 13.0 11.9 0.4 59.0 55.0 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.3 9.6 0.4 58.7 55.9 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.9 12.8 0.4 57.0 53.7 11.5 12.5 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.5 8.6 0.4 58.0 55.3 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.6 13.0 0.4 57.6 54.0 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.6 6.5 0.4 58.5 56.0 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.0 12.3 0.4 57.9 54.7 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.0 12.6 0.3 55.9 53.0 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.3 12.8 0.4 58.4 54.8 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.0 10.6 0.4 57.8 54.7 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.4 12.3 11.7 0.4 56.4 53.5 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.6 11.0 8.8 0.7 64.0 59.8 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.7 12.4 0.4 56.5 53.5 11.3 12.3 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.0 11.0 10.9 0.4 58.0 55.0 9.7 10.6 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.5 9.1 8.0 0.4 57.6 55.2 7.6 8.7 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 11.2 12.8 13.1 0.3 56.4 53.2 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------