***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 12.9 13.5 13.5 1.8 79.9 73.9 10.7 11.7 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 13.0 13.6 13.3 1.8 80.7 74.9 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 14.7 15.6 13.5 1.8 82.3 75.9 12.3 13.4 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 10.1 10.7 10.4 1.4 77.4 71.4 7.2 8.5 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 11.4 11.9 10.6 1.5 79.3 73.6 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 9.9 10.3 8.3 1.3 76.7 70.7 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 13.1 13.7 13.3 1.8 80.5 74.9 10.7 11.7 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 5.3 6.0 8.4 1.5 80.3 73.8 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 12.2 12.7 11.0 1.6 80.6 74.6 10.3 11.1 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 11.9 12.4 9.3 1.6 80.4 74.2 10.2 10.9 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 11.8 12.3 9.9 1.5 80.4 74.6 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 9.9 10.3 9.0 1.4 79.3 73.2 8.1 8.9 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 11.2 11.4 8.4 1.1 73.1 68.2 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 12.7 13.2 10.9 1.5 79.3 73.4 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 12.5 13.0 11.6 1.4 79.0 71.9 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 12.5 12.9 9.2 1.3 76.3 71.0 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 13.3 13.8 13.1 1.8 79.7 74.2 11.0 12.0 12.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 10.2 10.7 8.5 1.5 79.7 74.0 8.5 9.2 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 13.1 13.9 13.3 1.9 81.9 75.8 10.9 11.8 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 6.1 6.5 6.4 1.4 77.9 71.7 4.6 5.3 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 12.2 12.8 12.5 1.7 80.3 74.2 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 12.4 13.0 12.9 1.8 80.5 74.5 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 12.5 13.3 13.1 1.9 83.2 76.7 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 12.0 12.6 10.6 1.6 81.1 75.1 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 12.5 13.0 11.9 1.7 77.9 72.1 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 10.9 11.4 8.2 1.3 77.9 71.3 9.1 10.0 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 13.6 14.3 12.8 1.8 78.7 72.7 10.7 11.9 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 10.6 11.0 10.6 1.3 77.1 70.3 9.0 9.8 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 9.5 10.2 7.9 1.5 79.4 73.7 7.1 8.2 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 13.2 13.9 13.5 1.9 81.2 75.3 10.8 11.9 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------