***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2012.-13.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 10.6 16.7 106.8 65.7 55.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.2 8.0 16.8 97.8 61.7 52.4 2.9 5.6 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.8 11.3 17.0 110.5 66.2 56.2 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 20.6 20.1 21.6 116.3 68.7 60.5 6.6 11.8 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.7 14.8 22.0 115.0 68.0 60.3 4.2 8.2 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.4 17.1 29.4 115.5 68.1 61.3 5.0 9.6 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.7 9.2 16.4 94.7 60.6 51.3 3.7 6.7 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 26.4 28.1 26.7 128.7 72.2 64.2 9.3 15.6 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 10.2 14.3 21.4 119.0 69.1 60.7 4.7 8.3 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 12.2 17.7 25.6 121.5 69.9 62.1 5.3 9.7 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 10.3 13.1 21.3 112.5 67.2 59.9 5.4 8.6 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 14.3 14.8 22.3 126.0 71.4 62.7 4.4 8.0 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 10.9 10.7 26.5 118.0 68.9 61.9 3.4 6.2 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 11.7 15.9 22.9 115.2 67.9 58.8 4.6 9.0 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.3 14.8 18.4 119.7 69.6 58.4 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 9.5 11.9 23.0 110.2 66.4 59.5 4.9 7.9 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.1 11.1 15.9 97.1 61.9 51.5 3.8 7.5 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 12.0 18.0 28.0 122.5 70.1 62.0 5.2 9.7 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.7 14.9 16.9 101.8 63.2 53.6 5.2 9.8 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 16.1 17.2 34.0 127.1 71.9 64.4 6.4 10.2 14.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 10.9 15.7 18.7 120.6 69.9 59.9 4.6 8.6 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.1 10.0 15.0 96.4 61.5 52.8 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.1 11.0 17.7 107.4 65.3 55.2 4.0 7.1 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 13.1 18.2 22.4 117.3 68.4 59.3 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.0 16.4 21.8 113.0 67.5 59.7 4.9 9.3 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 12.7 13.1 26.7 128.9 72.3 64.6 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 11.1 14.0 19.5 106.0 65.3 56.6 4.5 8.6 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.6 15.6 20.2 116.6 68.7 59.4 5.2 9.2 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 16.4 22.8 29.5 121.7 69.8 62.1 8.4 13.9 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.7 9.9 16.7 98.7 62.0 53.0 2.9 6.4 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------