***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 12.9 13.3 -0.1 47.6 47.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.1 13.4 0.0 50.6 49.7 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 12.6 13.6 13.1 -0.1 47.2 47.4 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.2 8.3 11.2 -0.2 45.6 46.7 7.4 8.6 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.7 10.6 10.9 -0.2 45.2 46.3 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.4 9.2 -0.1 48.0 48.3 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.1 13.4 0.0 49.8 49.3 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.2 9.2 -0.1 47.7 47.8 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 10.5 11.4 11.3 -0.2 45.6 46.4 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.3 9.9 -0.1 47.1 47.4 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.3 10.4 -0.2 46.7 47.4 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.3 10.0 -0.2 46.5 47.2 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 9.8 10.6 9.5 -0.3 44.6 46.0 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 11.1 12.0 11.3 -0.3 44.4 45.0 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.5 11.8 -0.1 48.7 49.0 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.7 11.5 10.1 -0.2 45.7 46.8 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 11.3 12.5 13.3 0.1 52.0 50.5 11.4 12.4 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 8.9 9.9 9.2 -0.2 46.6 46.8 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 11.0 12.1 13.4 0.0 50.0 49.2 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.1 6.1 7.3 -0.1 47.6 47.1 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 10.5 11.3 12.3 -0.2 45.4 46.2 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 10.4 11.6 13.2 0.1 51.0 49.7 10.6 11.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 10.5 11.6 13.0 -0.1 48.0 47.8 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 10.5 11.4 11.1 -0.2 45.5 46.1 10.7 11.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.4 11.7 11.8 -0.2 46.1 46.9 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.0 9.6 -0.3 44.5 45.9 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 12.5 11.9 12.5 -0.2 47.0 47.4 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.4 11.4 -0.2 46.5 47.4 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.3 8.3 8.4 -0.2 46.8 46.6 7.5 8.5 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.7 12.2 13.5 0.0 49.6 49.1 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------