***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.9 13.7 0.8 63.6 59.4 11.3 12.2 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 13.0 12.8 13.6 1.0 65.7 61.4 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.4 13.7 0.9 64.9 60.7 12.7 13.6 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.9 9.4 11.0 0.8 64.2 60.1 7.4 8.5 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.1 11.3 10.8 0.5 60.1 57.5 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.9 10.2 8.9 0.7 63.4 59.2 8.7 9.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 13.0 12.9 13.7 1.1 66.8 62.0 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.6 8.3 0.3 55.7 54.7 3.3 4.3 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.9 12.1 11.0 0.5 60.3 57.8 10.7 11.6 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.8 9.3 0.4 57.7 56.0 10.6 11.5 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 11.7 11.9 10.1 0.5 59.9 57.4 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.0 9.2 0.5 59.4 57.2 8.7 9.6 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.4 9.0 0.6 60.8 57.8 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.6 10.8 0.4 57.4 56.2 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 12.9 13.5 12.4 1.0 69.1 63.0 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.4 9.8 0.6 62.4 59.0 10.8 11.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.7 13.1 13.4 1.0 65.0 61.2 11.4 12.3 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.5 8.5 0.4 58.0 56.6 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 13.1 12.9 13.5 0.9 65.3 61.2 11.3 12.1 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.5 6.3 0.2 53.9 53.8 5.4 6.3 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.8 12.0 12.5 0.6 60.9 58.2 10.7 11.5 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.2 13.0 0.7 62.3 59.5 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 12.7 12.5 13.2 0.9 65.2 61.1 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.2 10.7 0.5 60.2 58.0 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.4 12.0 0.6 60.2 57.1 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 11.3 11.1 8.7 0.7 64.1 59.5 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.6 12.9 0.8 62.9 58.8 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.5 11.4 0.9 66.6 61.7 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 8.7 8.7 7.8 0.3 55.2 54.8 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 13.2 13.0 13.8 1.0 66.2 61.5 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------