***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 9999.0 25.5 24.0 3.3 87.9 84.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 24.2 25.6 23.7 3.1 87.1 82.9 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 24.3 25.6 24.1 3.3 86.8 83.2 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 16.9 18.4 21.5 3.4 87.5 84.5 13.2 14.6 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 24.1 25.4 22.5 3.4 86.5 83.3 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 22.6 24.2 20.4 3.8 87.8 85.3 18.7 20.2 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 23.7 25.0 23.5 3.1 86.8 82.4 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 12.0 13.3 20.6 3.4 84.9 82.2 7.9 9.5 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 23.6 24.8 23.3 3.3 85.2 82.1 20.1 21.5 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 23.5 24.5 21.6 3.3 84.5 81.6 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 23.7 25.0 22.2 3.4 85.8 82.8 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 23.0 24.2 21.3 3.5 86.0 83.1 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 23.8 25.4 21.6 3.7 87.7 84.6 20.0 21.5 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 23.9 24.7 22.6 2.8 81.5 77.7 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 23.8 25.1 23.1 3.5 88.8 86.0 20.5 21.7 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 24.3 25.8 22.0 3.6 87.6 84.6 20.6 22.0 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 23.3 24.7 23.2 2.9 86.0 81.4 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 23.1 24.2 20.9 3.3 83.8 80.7 19.5 21.0 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 23.8 25.2 23.8 3.2 86.9 82.8 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 18.3 19.5 18.7 3.3 84.3 81.4 14.3 15.9 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 23.9 25.2 24.0 3.3 85.8 82.4 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 23.9 25.0 23.1 2.7 83.6 79.3 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 24.1 25.4 23.8 3.2 86.0 82.2 20.5 21.9 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 23.4 24.4 22.6 3.1 83.5 80.1 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 23.8 25.2 22.8 3.4 87.6 84.1 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 23.1 24.6 20.6 3.7 87.9 85.3 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 23.6 25.1 23.4 3.3 88.0 84.1 20.4 21.7 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 23.9 25.1 22.2 3.4 87.2 84.4 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 18.2 19.3 20.0 3.2 83.2 80.0 14.4 15.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 24.0 25.4 23.9 3.2 87.5 83.4 20.5 21.8 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------