***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 52.3 63.2 65.2 120.0 70.0 62.9 35.5 47.0 59.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 43.5 52.2 65.6 116.9 68.1 62.2 29.3 39.4 50.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 64.0 64.3 65.8 119.5 69.6 64.1 35.5 47.3 60.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 68.1 81.8 78.7 119.4 69.7 63.8 49.1 62.7 77.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 73.4 79.7 84.7 128.6 75.1 69.4 39.9 53.4 68.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 68.7 73.2 105.9 122.5 73.2 64.7 41.3 53.2 66.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 43.7 52.7 64.6 114.2 66.6 61.0 27.7 38.9 52.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 96.2 102.9 82.3 110.1 64.2 57.6 73.6 88.9 105.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 66.9 69.4 81.4 125.1 73.1 67.6 37.1 48.7 62.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 75.9 76.6 90.0 118.6 69.9 63.6 45.5 58.4 72.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 60.4 64.3 76.7 126.9 73.9 67.2 36.4 46.5 57.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 56.1 62.2 69.0 114.9 66.7 60.0 43.1 52.2 61.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 57.4 58.1 85.2 118.6 69.8 62.7 35.3 44.7 55.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 78.7 81.5 85.8 119.9 70.5 64.4 46.4 60.4 76.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 44.2 52.1 72.7 117.6 68.6 62.3 31.6 40.6 50.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 59.8 64.4 83.9 128.0 74.8 68.0 37.3 47.0 57.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 45.8 57.4 65.0 117.6 68.5 60.8 27.7 40.1 54.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 75.7 73.4 97.0 113.3 66.3 60.2 47.2 59.7 73.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 66.5 68.7 67.3 120.7 70.0 64.1 37.9 50.5 64.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 43.4 62.3 95.9 103.1 58.3 52.9 43.6 56.0 69.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 60.0 62.6 69.1 122.5 71.2 65.5 33.5 44.6 57.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 46.9 61.3 69.7 125.0 72.5 64.7 31.8 42.7 55.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 61.0 64.3 71.2 125.4 72.5 66.6 32.6 44.1 57.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 76.1 76.4 85.5 119.9 70.6 64.5 44.0 57.1 71.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 53.4 72.2 85.7 126.3 74.1 66.8 36.3 48.8 63.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 49.7 53.6 70.4 108.8 62.9 56.1 35.1 45.2 56.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 54.9 68.4 78.2 120.5 70.6 63.5 38.8 50.4 63.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 48.7 58.0 77.8 120.2 70.1 63.6 36.1 45.2 55.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 85.1 89.4 95.1 108.9 63.1 57.3 67.3 79.5 91.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 46.5 57.4 65.0 116.9 68.1 62.8 28.8 41.0 55.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------