***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.1 12.5 17.5 105.5 65.7 49.3 3.8 7.4 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.9 10.5 16.3 104.1 64.5 51.7 3.7 6.8 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.3 12.7 16.6 101.3 63.7 49.0 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.7 16.7 21.6 106.4 65.1 50.9 5.6 10.5 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.3 14.3 21.3 109.2 66.2 52.4 3.9 7.9 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.3 11.1 26.5 103.5 62.2 51.4 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.7 11.0 17.1 107.3 65.7 52.0 2.9 6.2 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.7 19.6 20.3 96.0 59.1 49.4 9.2 15.4 23.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.8 12.2 20.4 106.9 65.5 51.7 3.3 6.9 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.9 14.2 21.7 98.8 60.9 50.4 5.3 10.0 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.1 11.4 18.9 109.3 65.7 51.8 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.4 10.8 17.3 101.5 62.3 49.9 4.4 7.6 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.3 8.2 21.1 102.2 61.8 51.1 3.2 5.8 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.5 14.1 20.5 95.1 60.8 50.7 5.2 10.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.8 9.5 18.6 99.8 63.5 49.5 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.6 12.0 20.0 105.7 64.1 51.6 4.4 8.0 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 9.4 12.7 16.0 108.7 66.3 53.6 3.4 7.0 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 7.4 15.5 23.9 93.7 58.2 50.1 6.9 12.2 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.2 13.1 16.1 103.3 64.5 51.4 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 15.4 14.1 25.0 92.8 56.3 49.6 6.6 11.7 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.4 11.4 17.9 107.4 65.9 50.5 3.2 6.5 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.9 14.1 15.2 101.1 63.3 52.5 4.4 8.9 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.8 11.4 16.5 101.2 64.1 50.9 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 6.5 14.2 20.4 94.9 60.2 50.1 6.1 10.7 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.7 14.3 22.8 110.4 66.6 51.2 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.9 10.8 18.7 104.0 62.6 52.2 3.3 6.9 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.2 13.5 21.5 108.9 66.3 50.5 3.6 7.5 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.5 9.3 19.9 101.1 63.4 50.3 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.6 17.1 24.2 92.9 57.7 50.3 8.0 13.8 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.5 12.5 16.6 103.4 64.3 50.4 3.8 7.6 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------