***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9.8 13.3 16.6 112.4 67.6 58.0 4.5 8.0 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 10.7 14.6 15.9 114.4 68.3 56.8 4.6 8.4 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 9.8 13.1 16.4 110.7 66.9 57.6 4.4 7.9 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.8 16.5 92.5 60.2 52.6 6.7 12.3 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.7 15.8 94.0 60.5 52.5 4.7 8.5 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 14.6 11.7 16.3 77.4 51.4 43.8 6.0 11.2 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 10.5 14.6 15.5 114.1 68.2 59.1 4.8 8.7 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 26.1 21.4 14.4 77.2 52.1 44.8 11.4 20.2 31.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.5 15.3 89.6 58.7 50.7 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.3 13.4 16.1 84.7 56.2 48.4 6.4 11.2 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 12.7 13.1 15.4 91.1 58.7 50.2 5.4 10.0 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.3 12.2 13.0 78.0 52.7 44.8 7.1 11.5 17.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.6 9.1 14.1 73.0 49.8 43.1 5.3 9.1 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.6 15.1 19.2 91.2 58.7 48.7 5.8 11.4 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.5 15.9 91.2 60.2 51.5 4.5 7.8 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.4 10.0 14.1 78.6 53.5 45.8 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 12.2 16.8 15.2 108.1 66.2 56.3 4.9 9.6 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.4 14.0 16.7 80.7 53.7 46.2 7.0 12.5 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 14.8 19.4 16.2 111.9 67.3 54.6 6.0 11.3 18.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.6 11.2 14.9 70.5 46.3 40.9 7.6 12.3 18.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 11.4 13.4 15.9 100.9 63.5 55.0 5.5 9.4 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 11.4 14.0 16.2 105.9 65.4 53.3 5.9 9.5 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.3 17.0 16.6 105.7 65.0 51.7 5.9 10.8 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.2 17.4 91.5 58.6 49.2 6.3 11.7 19.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 12.5 17.1 19.4 113.1 67.5 60.0 5.6 10.2 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.9 7.7 12.5 68.1 46.7 39.3 4.9 8.5 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 12.4 16.9 18.6 116.0 68.5 59.9 6.1 10.3 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.0 15.6 88.0 58.9 50.6 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.5 13.6 16.8 77.0 51.0 44.6 7.2 13.2 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 10.3 14.6 15.8 113.7 68.0 57.5 3.9 7.9 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------