***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 7.5 15.5 14.8 90.2 58.6 46.4 7.2 12.3 19.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 5.8 11.3 12.6 85.5 56.5 45.0 5.8 9.5 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.7 13.7 86.8 57.5 47.0 6.9 11.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.4 14.1 16.4 90.2 58.7 46.6 5.3 10.3 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 5.6 12.9 15.0 86.6 57.1 46.2 5.3 10.3 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 5.7 11.6 20.0 92.4 57.6 46.9 5.4 9.3 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.9 11.8 13.7 92.0 59.5 46.5 4.8 8.8 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 22.7 22.0 17.9 90.6 57.4 49.3 12.5 18.9 26.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 5.3 11.1 15.4 87.3 56.9 46.3 5.0 9.1 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 15.6 14.7 18.3 88.2 56.4 47.7 7.8 12.5 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.0 10.3 15.0 89.1 57.6 47.7 4.0 7.9 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.1 10.4 15.5 89.5 57.8 48.4 4.7 8.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.2 9.7 17.5 89.1 57.5 48.0 4.3 7.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.7 14.5 17.3 82.2 55.2 46.3 6.2 12.1 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.9 8.0 16.0 96.9 62.1 47.6 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 6.2 12.8 16.3 88.4 57.5 47.3 6.0 10.2 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.5 11.7 12.5 89.9 58.6 46.1 5.1 9.1 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.3 16.6 20.4 89.7 57.5 48.5 7.9 13.5 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 6.1 12.0 12.3 82.1 55.2 44.5 6.0 10.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.9 21.8 96.8 59.9 51.8 7.8 13.5 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.4 14.9 89.5 58.4 46.8 5.2 9.0 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 14.8 13.9 12.1 85.1 56.7 45.8 7.1 11.7 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 6.9 12.2 12.2 79.4 54.3 44.4 6.9 10.9 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 8.4 16.1 17.0 85.8 56.6 46.8 8.1 13.5 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.8 11.0 17.1 91.8 58.4 46.3 4.4 8.4 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 10.7 10.0 15.8 88.0 57.3 47.5 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 5.9 13.8 16.4 92.3 58.8 46.0 5.5 10.4 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.3 9.6 16.1 88.6 58.3 46.1 4.2 7.5 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 13.5 22.2 20.7 90.9 57.9 49.4 13.4 19.2 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 6.3 12.3 12.9 86.0 56.9 45.3 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------