***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 23.2 23.9 21.6 1.4 77.1 71.5 21.2 22.2 23.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 23.4 23.6 21.3 1.1 71.8 67.2 21.2 22.2 23.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 23.4 23.9 21.9 1.5 77.2 71.7 21.3 22.3 23.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 16.0 16.8 19.3 1.8 82.1 75.1 14.0 14.9 15.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 23.4 24.2 20.2 1.7 80.5 73.8 21.5 22.4 23.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 21.7 22.5 18.0 1.8 81.6 74.1 19.9 20.7 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 22.9 23.1 21.1 1.1 70.6 66.3 20.8 21.8 22.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 11.1 11.8 18.3 1.7 80.1 73.1 9.1 10.0 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 22.9 23.7 20.8 1.8 81.2 74.7 20.9 21.8 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 22.7 23.3 19.3 1.8 80.4 73.7 20.9 21.7 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 22.9 23.6 20.2 1.8 81.6 74.5 21.0 21.9 22.7 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 22.0 22.7 19.4 1.9 82.3 74.7 20.2 21.0 21.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 22.9 23.7 19.3 1.8 81.2 73.8 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 23.2 23.5 20.3 1.3 73.9 68.8 21.2 22.1 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 23.3 24.3 20.9 1.9 85.4 77.4 21.2 22.1 23.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 23.5 24.3 19.7 1.8 82.1 74.6 21.6 22.5 23.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 22.6 22.7 20.9 1.0 68.5 64.6 20.5 21.5 22.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 22.3 22.8 18.7 1.7 78.7 72.2 20.4 21.3 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 23.0 23.4 21.6 1.4 75.2 70.0 20.8 21.8 22.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 17.3 17.9 16.2 1.6 78.2 71.4 15.4 16.3 17.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 23.1 23.8 21.5 1.6 78.8 72.8 21.1 22.1 22.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 23.2 23.3 20.9 1.0 69.6 65.4 21.0 22.1 23.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 23.4 24.1 21.9 1.7 80.0 74.2 21.1 22.1 23.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 22.7 23.2 20.4 1.5 77.2 71.3 20.8 21.7 22.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 23.0 23.7 20.3 1.5 78.8 72.7 21.1 22.0 22.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 22.3 23.3 18.7 2.1 86.1 78.0 20.4 21.2 22.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 22.9 23.4 20.9 1.4 76.9 71.3 21.0 21.9 22.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 23.2 24.1 19.9 1.8 83.1 75.6 21.3 22.1 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 17.3 17.8 17.8 1.6 77.5 71.1 15.4 16.2 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 23.1 23.5 21.4 1.2 73.8 68.8 21.0 22.0 22.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------